April 21: Severe Storms Possible Again Tomorrow

The weather took a quick turn in a dangerous direction this afternoon!  A storm moving into Bedford county around 4pm managed to spin enough to prompt a tornado warning, and that storm did some damage to a school and motel in Shelbyville.
One of our viewers tweeted some spectacular video of the rotating storm.

For the rest of tonight, our severe weather potential will remain limited.  More showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and head toward us in waves throughout the night, as shown by the HRRR model’s radar simulation through Saturday morning:

A little break from the highest rain chances looks to develop Saturday morning — but that would allow the atmosphere enough time to warm up and “recharge” for another round of strong to severe storms in the afternoon.  Let me be very clear: it’s FAR from certain that the break in the rain will actually occur…or that the atmosphere will warm up enough…or that the center of this storm system will follow a path conducive to a severe weather threat.  You get the idea — there are a lot of moving parts with this system, and a lot of different ways we could avoid a significant severe weather threat.  That’s obviously the best-case scenario.

The worst-case scenario is that we warm up enough for the atmosphere to become very unstable, and thunderstorms explosively develop around midday.  That’s being depicted by the RPM model in this series of images:

Because there are so many questions, ifs and what-ifs surrounding this system, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) for severe weather:

At this point I’m cautiously optimistic that we’ll be able to avoid the worst-case scenario in terms of the wind and hail threats…but I’m still concerned about localized flooding.  We’ll could another 2″-3″ of rain falling onto already-saturated ground:

Rather than bury you with additional meteorological mumbo-jumbo, let’s just stick to a simple list with some bits of advice…

DO
– Re-think any outdoor plans Saturday, especially in the afternoon.
– If you HAVE to be outside, know where you can take cover if needed.
– Plan on staying weather-aware — it’s a forecast that could go either way.
– Have a way to stay informed if you’re on the go — for instance, the 4WARN mobile app!

DON’T
– Freak out, or panic.  That doesn’t change anything, anyway.
– Re-arrange any activities that will be held indoors.  No need to do that.
– Try to cross water-covered roads.

Dan Thomas will be on bright and early Saturday morning with an update, and he’ll have a fresh blog post with updated data posted by mid-morning as well.

The second half of the weekend isn’t looking great either, but not from a damaging-weather perspective…just cool and showery throughout the day:

We’ll clear out and warm up Monday and Tuesday, before the forecast becomes a bit more unsettled late next week.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

A Soggy Weekend Ahead

Good morning CLOUDS and very warm temperatures — running anywhere from fifteen to twenty degrees WARMER than average for this time of year, in the low to upper 60s.

VIDEO TVIWSMV DMA TEMPS ZOOM1_EffectSquiggle Autoplot

A passing cold front pulls in widely scattered showers and storms, all marching on a northeasterly path (8:16 am as I type here)…VIDEO RADAR

You’ll want to grab an umbrella and keep it handy as you head out there door, as I expect this few storms to increase in number by the afternoon into the evening. A ‘Marginal Risk’ for severe storms (1 on a 1 to 5 scale) covers our entire state but the best chance remains for areas along and south of I-40. Damaging winds and localized flooding remain the greatest threats…

daphne severe new

Moisture from the same cold front combines with an upper level system on Saturday, keeping a decent chance for showers and storms (90%), especially during the morning to early afternoon.

Here’s the timing…DD RPM 4KM EVENINGDD RPM 4KM EVENING2DD RPM 4KM EVENING3DD RPM 4KM EVENING4DD RPM 4KM EVENING6DD RPM 4KM EVENING7DD RPM 4KM EVENING8DD RPM 4KM EVENING9DD RPM 4KM EVENING0

You can expect a decent soaking out of this event — anywhere from 0.5″ to 2.5″ through Sunday evening, which can only help our 2.91″ deficit of rain in Nashville.

DAPHNE ECMWF RAIN

Here’s re-cap of your weekend forecast — stormy, rainy & seasonable on Saturday. Rainy & cooler than average on Sunday.Dd_WeekendOutlook

Hang tight for a breakthrough of sunshine! It will be here before you know and perfect timing for any Monday blues.WSMV 7 Day AM

I’ll have the full weekend timeline coming up on Channel 4 at noon today! Hope you join me!

-Meteorologist Daphne DeLoren

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

April 20: More Storms Ahead, Daily Links

WEATHER

Warm and muggy again today, with high temperatures reaching the mid 80s:

Today’s record high temperature is 87°, set in 2002.

Just a slight chance of a pop-up storm during the afternoon, before a better chance of showers and scattered thunderstorms moves in from the northwest late tonight.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows the limited daytime activity, and the approach of tonight’s rain:

Showers and storms likely Friday, especially in the afternoon and early evening — the RPM model’s depiction of that activity looks reasonable:

A few of the storms could be strong, with damaging winds and localized flooding the main threats.  The Storm Prediction Center has included us in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe weather:

That means you can expect numerous thunderstorms, but only a few of those storms will approach severe limits.  Don’t lose any sleep over it.

Strong to severe storms still possible Saturday, but that system is still defying any attempts to pin down some details.  Everything depends on where the low pressure “heart” of the storm system goes — a northerly track is bad news for us, a southerly track keeps the severe weather potential pushed down to our south:

The SPC is betting on the southern track, as reflected in their outlook for Saturday:

But the SPC’s own ensemble forecast (a blend of 25+ different models) is showing a 40-50% chance of storms with supercell ingredients right here in the Midstate on Saturday:

That model (or more accurately, collection of models) has been very consistent in that depiction over the last 24 hours — we’ll see if it remains consistent over the next 48 hours, or if it shifts the severe threat farther south.

At this point, the only things you should be doing:
1) Adjusting outdoor plans for the likelihood of rain on Saturday.
2) Planning to stay weather-aware throughout the day Saturday.

Notice that “panic” and “freak out” aren’t on the list.

Cool and showery weather will linger for the second half of the weekend, then we’ll clear out and warm back up through the first half of next week:

 

LINKS

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Break in the Action

After two days of flash flooding across Middle Tennessee, today was much drier.  The showers and thunderstorms were fewer and less intense. The increase in sunshine allowed temperatures to soar to 83 degrees in Nashville.  That is just over 10 degrees above the average of 72 degrees.

LS Rainbow

Rainbow in Murfreesboro this evening

Now the rain has diminished and you can even catch a glimpse of Mars out tonight.

Most of the day tomorrow will be dry,  but the rain break won’t last long. Futurecast  shows only a few showers in the afternoon.  A better chance of rain and thunderstorms will return Thursday night.

The rain chance will increase into Friday. Temperatures will drop back to the mid 70s with the increase in clouds and showers. The Storm Prediction Center has put Middle Tennessee in a Marginal risk zone for severe weather for Friday.

A stronger system will approach Saturday, some of those storms could be strong to severe.  We’ll keep you updated as that is a few days off. The front will leave some cooler air for Sunday and a few showers.

WSMV 4DAY FORECAST.png

Here’s the latest Futurecast depiction for Friday into Saturday.

I’m watching the weather myself as I am emcee for the Hike2Heal to raise money for healthcare for children attending Raise the Roof Academy in Uganda. Come out and join me.

LISA SPECIAL FORECAST 8

I’ll have an update on Channel 4 News at 10pm.

Lisa Spencer

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

April 19: June-Like Pattern Continues, Daily Links

WEATHER

Warm and muggy conditions will persist again today, with highs reaching the low 80s this afternoon:

Still a chance for scattered storms, but they won’t be as widespread or as heavy as what we saw the past couple of days.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation has performed adequately the past couple of days, and it shows this morning’s showers fizzling, then more storms popping up from mid-afternoon into early this evening:

Dry weather during the day Thursday, with highs in the mid 80s:

Another chance of showers and storms moves in late Thursday night and Friday.  Right now it looks like the storms that approach us Thursday evening will weak as they move in, then we’ll see a better chance of storms re-developing along and south of I-40 on Friday:

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe weather Friday — that means we’re expecting numerous storms, but only a few of those storms will approach severe limits:

Saturday is the “interesting” day in the forecast…a threat of severe thunderstorms will develop somewhere in the southeastern U.S., but the exactly placement of that threat is still really up in the air.  A storm system will move in from the west, with warm and muggy (and therefore unstable) air being dragged northward ahead of it:

The placement of the greatest severe threat will be determined by the path of the storm system — if the path of the low pressure “heart” of the storm system goes to our north or pretty much overhead, we could be in trouble.  That’s the scenario being depicted by the European forecast model:

If that surface low goes to our south, we’ll be mostly in the clear (but we’ll still get plenty of rain).  That’s the way the American GFS model has been trending:

But there’s still plenty of uncertainty!  The Storm Prediction Center’s ensemble model (a blend of 25+ different models) shows all of the various possibilities of where that surface low will be located early Saturday afternoon, and they’re all over the place:

Until those L’s start to cluster together, forecast uncertainty will remain high — we’ll keep you updated as the weekend gets closer, and we’ll hope that the projected track shifts farther south.

Cool and showery for the second half of the weekend, then things dry out and warm up again early next week:

 

LINKS

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

The Unsettled Pattern Continues

Here we go again…yes another afternoon and evening of rain and thunderstorms.  Again there were estimates of 2″-3″ of rain across Middle Tennessee.  There were several reports of small hail, gusty winds and flash flooding.

LS PICTURE vertical.png

Winds gusted to 50 mph at Nashville International, there were reports of trees down in the area nearby and in other spots too.

LS 4

Tree on a house in Donelson

More rain and thunderstorms the rest of this evening, but like last night they will diminish in intensity as the night goes on. Tomorrow morning there will be a shower of two possible along with some fog.  Tomorrow afternoon more areas of rain and thunderstorms will develop, but I don’t expect them to be as intense or numerous as the past two days.  Here’s the latest Futurecast depiction.

The front that is triggering this activity will wash out, so Wednesday night and most of Thursday should be dry.  Another weak front will bring more activity on Thursday night and Friday.  Friday’s temperatures will reflect the front passing by.

Saturday a stronger system will bring the potential of strong thunderstorms. We’ll keep updating you on the potential for those storms to be severe. Right now it looks like the instability ahead of the front along with some wind shear could set the right conditions.

WSMV 4DAY FORECAST

Good time to remind you of Surviving the Storm, this week, the team goes to Pulaski.  We’ll be a New Zion Baptist Church. Come on out for our free weather safety show.

WSMV SURVIVING THE STORM Single

I’ll have an update on Channel 4 News at 10pm.

Lisa Spencer

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

April 18: More Unsettled Weather, Daily Links

WEATHER

Today’s weather will be very similar to yesterday’s weather: we’ll see a break from the best rain chances through early afternoon — still some spotty showers, but nothing widespread.  The morning fog and low cloud cover will slow down the warmup, but we’ll still warm up to the upper 70s this afternoon:

Those warm temperatures will fire up more scattered storms this afternoon into this evening.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows the scatterershot pattern, with the best chance of the heaviest rain just a little farther south compared to yesterday:

More scattered showers and storms possible tomorrow, then again Thursday night into Friday.  Temperatures will top out around 80° on Wednesday, reaching the mid 80s on Thursday, before things head in a slightly cooler direction for Friday:

Some stronger storms are still possible on Saturday — in fact, the “analog” forecast method (comparing the Saturday’s projected pattern to similar historical patterns) shows a 50+% chance of severe storms:

That said, there’s still a TON of uncertainty regarding that entire scenario.  We’ll keep you updated as the week progresses.

Saturday’s storm system will usher in cooler air for the second half of the weekend and the first part of the next work week:

 

LINKS

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment