Blast of Autumn Air is Here

The summery warmth of the weekend has packed up & headed south!  Meanwhile, much more typical fall conditions have moved in in its place.

This change occurred late yesterday afternoon and overnight.  Outdoors as of 6am today, it’s chilly!

DT DMA TEMPS STILL1

It’s mildest over eastern Middle Tennessee, where clouds linger.

DT SATRAD3D Zooms

Clouds will gradually decrease from eastern Middle Tennessee this morning.  The north wind will increase to 10-20 mph with higher gusts as we approach midday.

Here’s your temperature profile today…

WSMV_DAYTEMPS_SkylineBkgrnd

Highs in many of our communities will look like this…

DT 4 RPM 12KM Temperature.png

Weather for the Titans tonight will be cool & crisp!

DT FOOTBALL TITANS ANIMATION

Temperatures will keep tumbling overnight.  In fact, we have the possibility of patchy frost at early tomorrow for the first time this season….mainly in the areas shaded blue.

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Check out how cold it’ll get tonight:

DT 4 RPM 12KM Temperature2

This week, as high pressure builds in we expect lots of sunshine and no rain, plus temperatures typical of mid fall.

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The next chance for rain won’t arrive until Sunday and even then, it’ll just be a slight chance for a shower.

WSMV 7 Day AM

Join me later today on News 4 at Noon!  I’ll have an updated look at how cold it’ll get tonight and whether frost will be a concern tomorrow night as well.

DT

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October 15: An Autumnal Week Ahead

As this evening’s showers depart, significantly cooler air will come crashing into the Midstate, which means it will actually FEEL like fall…temporarily, at least.

The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows the rain moving off the Cumberland Plateau around midnight:

Temperatures tonight will drop to the mid to upper 40s:

We’ll only warm up to the mid 60s on Monday despite abundant sunshine:

Strong northerly winds will keep the cool air locked in place Monday night and Tuesday, with lows in the low to mid 40s and highs on Tuesday only in the upper 60s to around 70°:

A gradual warming trend kicks in Wednesday through next weekend, with temperatures back to around 80° by Friday, Saturday and Sunday:

Our next hint of a rain chance doesn’t arrive until Sunday at the earliest.  Enjoy the nice weather this week!

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Rain & Colder Air on the Way

After a warm start to the weekend (yesterday’s high was 86), showers and thunderstorms will push through along a cold front today.  Then, temperatures will tumble to get us back to more typical mid fall-like conditions.  I hear applause from some….and boooos from others.

As of 7am on this Sunday, it’s mild and humid.

DT DMA TEMPS STILL1

There’s a light south breeze blowing in some clouds in many areas.  Here’s the view over downtown Nashville.

DT VIDEO TVI

Notice the rain headed our way for later.  It’s quickly approaching the bootheel of Missouri.

VIDEO VIPIR

As that system pushes through the Mid State expect just scattered showers until it slides east of I-65 this afternoon.  Then, a few thunderstorms will form up with some heavier downpours for eastern Middle Tennessee.  FUTURECAST shows that.

Temperatures will warm in Nashville until about midday, and then cool considerably.

Tomorrow will be bright, but feel more like November.  Be sure to take a jacket if you’re going to the Titans game tomorrow night, too!

DT FOOTBALL TITANS ANIMATION

Come Tuesday morning, I expect patchy frost will form.  Lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

DT 4 RPM 12KM Temperature2

Join us on News 4 this morning from 8am until 9am for an updated look at the rain headed our way.  We’ll share more specifics on where frost is most likely for Tuesday.

DT

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October 14: Big Changes on Sunday

Today felt more like summer, but tomorrow will mark the transition back to more typical fall-like conditions.  Temperatures tonight will only drop to the upper 60s:

We’ll warm up to around 80° by midday Sunday, even with quite a bit of cloud cover overhead…but check out the free-fall that happens after that — all the way down to the low 60s by early evening!

The reason for that temperature drop is a cold front that will spark a good chance of showers and a few thunderstorms.  The best chance will move in by late morning and continue into mid afternoon, as shown here on Futurecast:

Severe weather isn’t expected in our neck of the woods…in fact, the Storm Prediction Center’s ensemble model estimates a whopping 1% chance that storms with severe weather ingredients develop in the Midstate Sunday afternoon:

We’ll keep an eye on things, just in case.

Next week is looking dry, with seasonably cool conditions Monday and Tuesday giving way to a warming trend by the end of the work week and the first half of next weekend:

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Changeable Weather This Weekend

This weekend will start summery, but turn much cooler as it comes to a close.  In between, expect some rain.

Outdoors as of 7am today, temperatures are in the 50s and 60s.

DT DMA TEMPS STILL1

Most areas have sunshine…

DT VIDEO TVI

However, over southern Middle Tennessee there’s a deck of low clouds and even some fog.  4WARN Live Doppler Radar in fog tracking mode shows visibility around 1/2 mile in Bedford County (orange shading).  The yellow color indicates where there’s thin fog.

VIDEO RADAR SPONSOR

A developing southerly wind will make it much warmer this afternoon.  Here’s a look at highs.

DT 4 RPM 12KM Temperature

It’ll turn more humid, too.  Notice dew points (what we use to quantify how muggy it feels) will climb into the mid 60s by late afternoon, adding to that summertime feel!

DT Dew Point Scale Emojis BACKUP

FUTURECAST shows just a few clouds across the area today.  There’s only a 5-10% chance for a shower on the Cumberland Plateau between 2pm and 6pm.

Tomorrow will bring a much better chance for rain, however.  That weather maker will come our way from the Plains.  Notice all the showers between Omaha and Kansas City…

VIDEO VIPIR2

As that batch of moisture pushes through, we’ll have a round of showers.  East of I-65 there probably will even be a few thundershowers during Sunday afternoon.  Once that rain pushes east of our area, cooler air will begin to filter in.

Here’s a look at the rain’s timing for tomorrow…

By Monday and Tuesday, it’ll feel like the middle of fall!  Temperatures will be below average then for a change.  Join us on News 4 at 8:30am until 9am for more on that…and to find out when our next chance for rain will be after tomorrow.

DT

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October 13: Warm Saturday, Wet Sunday, Nerd-Links

WEATHER

We have beautiful weather in place across the Midstate this evening, and the nice weather pattern will continue into the first half of the weekend.  Mostly clear skies will prevail most of tonight, with temperatures dropping to the upper 50s by early Saturday morning:

Some patchy dense fog is possible once again, but it will dissipate much more quickly than it did this morning.

Temperatures will warm up rapidly, reaching the low to mid 80s Saturday afternoon:

Saturday’s record high is 89 — I don’t think we’ll be THAT warm, but we’ll be close!

We’ll see increasing clouds Saturday night, with showers and a few thunderstorms possible on Sunday.  Futurecast isn’t overly impressed with our storm chances, but does show a fair amount of shower activity throughout the day:

I’m not entirely convinced of the timing of the showers that Futurecast is showing — the best chance could hold off until late morning and early afternoon.  Regardless, it will be hit-or-miss activity — your odds are about 50-50 to get some free lawn watering.  We’ll keep you updated on the timing of the best rain chance.

That system will be out of here by early Monday morning, bringing another fall-like airmass into the Midstate…briefly.  Next week looks dry, with a gradual warming trend pushing us back to around 80° by next Friday:

Overall, the rest of October is looking warm — the Climate Prediction Center’s two-week outlook indicates a good chance of above-average temperatures in the eastern two-thirds of the country, with the cooler-than-normal air confined to the Pacific Northwest:

 

LINKS

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Fog Machine is Working

The fog machines have been out this morning! So much so that visibility has been zero in some spots, including Downtown. I took a screen grab during our morning show so I could share with you here, in case you slept in…

VIDEO TVI

It is now 9:08 AM and conditions have improved enough to not extend the dense Fog Advisory. That has now expired. Here’s a peak out the window…still struggling but better!VIDEO TVI2

Oranges and reds on our fog tracker indicate the worst spots. Areas where visibility is at 1/2 mile or less. The good news — ample sunshine today will burn the fog off within the morning hours…VIDEO RADAR SPONSOR

Fog has had the spot light but temperatures are second in the running with attention this morning. It is chill-ay! We’ve been as cool as the lower 40s, now in the upper 40s/upper 50s…still cool enough for a warm jacket (says the girl from South Florida…hey, I have roots here).WSMV DMA TEMPS ZOOM1_EffectSquiggle Autoplot

Yesterday, clouds were stubborn. Today, not so much. Plentiful sunshine will warm things back up into the upper 70s, about five degrees above average for this time of the year.DAPHNE iCast Temperature

If you’re looking for some fun plans around town tonight, our own Chris Miller and Dan Thomas will be emceeing the Franklin Wine festival at The Factory. If I was not pregnant, I would be there! 🙂

The event starts at 7 PM and lasts until 10 PM. Weather will be perfect — lows 70s at the start dropping to the lower 60s by the end, so you’ll need to bring along a sweater. Crisp air and clear skies are the cherry on top.

DD SPECIAL

Crisp air is all thanks to dew points in the 50s. This will change so enjoy it! Winds switch gears to be out of the south tomorrow which will funnel in more moisture, hence an increase in humidity.WSMV DMA DEWPOINT STILL1daphne RPM 4KM DEW POINT

It will feel humid but the showers hold off on Saturday. The better chance for spotty showers and thunderstorms arrive on Sunday. Common factor for both days — unseasonably warm days! WSMV WeekendOutlookBASIC

This takes the ‘fall-feel’ out very quickly but not for long…temperatures nose dive from a high of 86 on Saturday to a high of 67 on Monday. This is the cooler air filtering in behind the system responsible for the rain. Some like, some not so much. In any case, we have weather that caters to both. 🙂WSMV 7 Day AM

Wishing everyone a wonderful weekend! I’ll see you all bright, or I should dark and early at 4 am on Monday morning!

-Meteorologist Daphne DeLoren

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