Busy Weekend for Weather

Rain, storms, & humidity will all play a big role in our weekend weather!

This morning, it’s plenty humid….AND warm.  Temperatures as of 8am are already in the 70s.

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Some areas are cloudy while others are in full sunshine!

VIDEO VIPIR

As for rain, there’s not much — just a few showers over far southwestern Kentucky, moving northward.

I don’t expect much in the way of rain this morning, so make good use of this time to get in any outdoor chores you need to do….or to have outdoor fun!

Golfing?

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The 2017 Tour de Nash is getting underway now.  That forecast looks great, too!

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If you’re going to the Bellevue Picnic, know that late this afternoon or early this evening some showers and thunderstorms will move in, there.

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Any storms that develop this afternoon could become severe with damaging wind and 1″ diameter hail.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in a “Slight Risk” for severe weather.  That’s a level 2 threat, on a scale of 1 to 5.

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FUTURECAST shows how things may unfold this afternoon.  It probably won’t go exactly this way.  It should be rather close though.  The bottom line is you should expect some storms over western Middle Tennessee by mid afternoon.  Storms should reach Nashville around dinnertime (plus or minus an hour or two).  Storms will likely hold off from reaching eastern Middle Tennessee until this evening.

The rain chance through today shows rain won’t completely go away tonight.  We’ll have isolated pockets of rain/storms right through early tomorrow.

DT DAYPART RainChances

During the day tomorrow, rain and storms will be scattered for a while, then wind down from west to east as a cold front sweeps through.  Count on even more clouds tomorrow with temperatures running a solid 10 degrees lower than today.  SO…highs tomorrow will only be in the 70s for most.  It’ll feel GOOD, after all this unseasonable heat.

Coming up on Channel 4 News Today between 9am and 10am, we’ll share much more on the rain expected this weekend.  We’ll also cover what’s in store for next week!

DT

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Weekend Weather and Happenings

Wow, what an awful way to start of the morning today…there was extensive flooding in Sumner County today.  Some of the flooding photos and video look like 2010, but covering a smaller area.

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Rain has diminished across Middle Tennessee for tonight, but we can’t rule out an isolated shower or thundershower tonight.  Tomorrow there will be more showers and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon and evening. One or two of those storms could be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has put parts of Middle Tennessee in a “marginal” or “slight” risk zone for severe thunderstorms.

PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION

Here is the latest Futurecast depiction.

 

More rain is in the forecast for Sunday.  It should be more widespread and with fewer thunderstorms.  All in all Saturday looks to be the better of the two weekend days for outdoor fun or chores. Notice the temperatures take a drop Sunday and the beginning of next week.

Monday will be sunny and mild with temperatures average for this time of year. More rain arrives Tuesday, a few thunderstorms are possible.

WSMV 4DAY FORECAST

There is a lot going on this weekend. Here are a few things you may want to consider.

NIGHT MARKET: Relax and unwind at Night Market tonight from 5pm to 9pm. This is a free monthly event that takes place on the third Friday at the Nashville Farmers’ Market! This month’s event is the first one of the year outside under the sheds as well as inside the Market House. Enjoy music, seasonal cocktails, wine, craft beer, local artisan booths, plenty of dinner options from Market restaurants, activities for families and more.

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MOVIE IN THE PARK: Brentwood is holding their first ever Movie in the Park event at Crockett Park featuring the movie Moana. There will be food trucks available and the movie starts at 7pm. It’s free.

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CHINESE LIGHT FESTIVAL: You can experience Nashville Fairgrounds with a new exhibit called China Lights Nashville. It features exquisite lanterns sculptures, traditional performances, beautiful art, and delicious cuisine! Brighten up your summer evenings with a visit to this renowned international Chinese Lantern Festival. The event is Tuesday to Sunday evenings from 5:30pm to 10pm.

GOODGUYS CAR SHOW: Goodguys returns to Music City for three full days of Southern-style hot roddin’ fun at the 12th Nashville Nationals Giant Car Show Saturday and Sunday at Nissan Stadium. See more than 2,500 of the country’s finest 1972 and older hot rods, customs, muscle cars, trucks and classics on display. Saturday 9am to 5pm and Sunday 8am to 3pm.

Tour de Nash 2017: The Tour de Nash, Nashville’s largest urban bike ride, is Saturday 8:30am to 3pm. The event is to encourage people to explore Nashville’s best bikeways and roads by bicycle. There are routes to choose from. Click here for more information. The rides will start and end at Morgan Park (north of downtown), but a large portion of the rides go through downtown.

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 I’ll have an update on Channel 4 News at 5pm, 6pm, 6:30pm and 10pm.

Lisa Spencer

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May 19: Unsettled Weekend

WEATHER

The big story of the morning has obviously been the flash flooding in Sumner county, where radar-estimated rainfall (confirmed by several surface observations) ranges from 2″ (yellow) to over 6″ (purple) as of 9am:

Numerous water rescues and flooded roads have been reported by emergency management — anything specific reports I relay here will be outdated pretty much as I hit “publish,” so check our Twitter feeds (@WSMV and @PaulHeggenWSMV) for updates.  A couple of the pictures I retweeted this morning shows the effect of the rain just northwest of Gallatin — Bugg Hollow Road covered with fast-moving water:

Station Camp creek runs right along that road, and it sure looks like the creek has run well out of its normal banks.  Garrison Branch Road was also covered with water:

We’ll see an unsettled weather pattern through the weekend.  Off-and-on showers and storms today and tomorrow, but neither day will be a washout — just be flexible with any outdoor plans.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows the hit-and-miss pattern today, with the best chance of additional storms developing this afternoon:

Take that with a BIG grain of salt, because the forecast models don’t typically handle a disorganized pattern like this very well.  Hot and muggy in between the storms, with highs around 90° both today and tomorrow:

The best chance of widespread showers and a few stronger storms will move in Saturday evening into early Sunday, as shown by the RPM model:

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) of severe storms in northwestern Middle Tennessee and the western half of southern Kentucky, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) that includes Nashville:

I’m not overly concerned about our severe weather potential at this point, but Saturday evening’s storms are likely to be more organized than what we’ll see today and during the day tomorrow.  Just plan on staying weather-aware, just in case — we’ll keep you updated.

More showers and non- severe storms throughout the day Sunday:

The lingering rain will keep temperatures cooler on Sunday, with highs only reaching the upper 70s. Dry weather to start the next work week — partly cloudy skies and highs just above 80° on Monday, before the next chance of showers and storms moves in Tuesday and Wednesday:

No time for the nerd-links today, with all of the flooding problems.  Your daily dose of nerdery will be back on Monday…

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HOT & Humid, with Increasing Rain Chances

Hello, beautiful! One fine day across the Mid State — plenty of blue sky confirmed by a couple viewer photos here…both happen to be in Murfreesboro!

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Maybe that’s why they look so similar?

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Thanks Hannah and Jeannine for sharing your wonderful captures…

They radar is not looking too shabby (3:06 pm). Most of us, in the clear. High humidity sparks a few isolated storms, especially south and east. Check it out…VIDEO RADAR

It is another day for an extra water bottle and mister fan….temps are running in the upper 80s to even a few lower 90s…WSMV DMA TEMPS ZOOM1_EffectSquiggle Autoplot

Highs dew point values are the ‘stick’ factor REALLY making it feel like summertime…WSMV DMA DEWPOINT STILL1PAUL MUGGY METER

Just a few friendly tips in the heat…hydrate, take air conditioning breaks if working outside and do not leave pets out in the yard for prolonged periods of time.LS Check Mark

Always the hot topic….the weekend! Just around the corner. A few spotty showers and storms are possible on Saturday but the better chance for widespread rain & storms hold off until late Saturday night into Sunday. This will aid in pulling daytime highs back to average, in the upper 70s.

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I’ll have the full weekend shower & storm timeline coming up on Channel 4 at 4 & 4:30 pm.7 Day PM

Chief Meteorologist Lisa Spencer will have updates coming up at 5, 6 and 10!

-Meteorologist Daphne DeLoren

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May 18: Summertime Weather, Daily Links

WEATHER

Summer officially starts on June 20, but we definitely getting preview for the next few days.  It’s very warm and muggy this morning morning — temperatures started off 10-15 degrees above-average, and we’ll reach the mid to upper 80s later today:

Specific hour-by-hour temperatures will depend on whether you get one of the spotty storms we expect to pop up…but even if you can briefly enjoy some-rain cooled air, the humidity isn’t going anywhere.  Dew points will hover in the mid 60s throughout the day — not the top of the Muggy Meter, but certainly uncomfortable:

The mugginess is the fuel for the spotty storms we’re expecting, with the best chances along the Cumberland Plateau and in the northwestern corner of the Midstate:

The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows the pattern — don’t focus on the specific storm placement though, since the thunderstorm activity will be very disorganized:

The big story today will be the significant severe weather threat that will impact Tornado Alley, especially Kansas and Oklahoma.  The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a rare “High Risk” of severe weather, for only the third time this year (in 2015 and 2016 there were ZERO High Risk days across the entire country):

Strong, long-track tornadoes and grapefruit-size hail are the primary concerns with the High Risk zone.  If you know anyone who lives there, make sure they’re staying weather-aware today…they’re likely already on alert, but it never hurts to check!

Back closer to home, we’ve got more of the same in store tomorrow and Saturday…unseasonably warm and humid, spotty storms possible each day:

The best chance of more widespread thunderstorms will move in late Saturday night into early Sunday, then we’ll briefly dry out for the beginning of the new work week.

 

LINKS

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Hot and Humid with Rain On the Way!

Wowie! A heavenly start to our Wednesday morning. I woke up early enough to catch the sunrise on my way to workout…

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Two snaps just minutes apart…so beautiful.DD PICTURE

Just like yesterday, temps are toasting up quickly. Savannah is our leading hot spot, with a check in at 88 degrees. I expect several spots to hit NINETY by the end of the day…

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Humidity is also on the rise! Low to mid 60s…you’re feeling it but it could be worse.WSMV DMA DEWPOINT STILL1

Tomorrow will confirm! Upper 60s to even a few low 70s…little extra hair spray is a must.PAUL RPM 4KM DEW POINT

At the top of our muggy meter…

Dew Point Scale Increasing

Alongside more humidity, will be another round of uncomfortable heat. We’re talking upper 80s, again! The heat & humidity combo will pave way for an isolated afternoon shower or two.

DAPHNE iCast Temperature

The better chance for showers and storms will be with an approaching cold front on Friday, at a 50% chance. Though the threat is not high, I’m not ruling out an isolated severe storm to develop. A few showers will linger into Saturday. The best chance for the rain and storms will be during the second half of the weekend on Sunday…

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If you’re ready for a break from the heat, you’ll need to hang tight and keep the extra water bottle handy as you do. Mother Nature plays hopscotch with our daytime highs, from 90 on Saturday back to seasonable upper 70s by Sunday. That will carry on into early next week.WSMV 7 Day AM

Dan Thomas will have updates coming up on Channel 4 at 4 & 6:30 today. Chief Meteorologist Lisa Spencer will have your full weekend shower & storm timeline coming up at 5, 6 & 10!

-Meteorologist Daphne DeLoren

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May 17: Hello Humidity, Daily Links

WEATHER

Hot and breezy weather today, with high temperatures around 90° this afternoon:

Sustained winds at 15-20 mph with gusts over 25 mph will try to move you around on the road a bit, so keep both hands on the wheel!

Still dry today, but the humidity will be slightly more noticeable, with dew points this afternoon around 60° — firmly in “meh” territory on the Muggy Meter:

The mugginess really increases tomorrow, with dew points reaching the mid 60s:

It will feel sticky all the way through the weekend…that also means at least a slight chance of thunderstorms each day.  Just isolated storms tomorrow, with highs in the upper 80s:

A better chance of scattered storms Friday afternoon — I’m not wild about how any of the forecast models are depicting that chance, so I’m not going to show you any radar simulations yet today.  The best chance of storms Saturday will be north of I-40, then showers and storms will be likely areawide on Sunday:

The severe thunderstorm potential is never ZERO when the humidity is at the level it will be through the weekend, but it doesn’t look like there won’t be enough wind energy overhead to support a widespread or significant severe thunderstorm threat:

That said, it’s still May and it’s still severe weather season, so we’ll keep a close eye on things.

 

LINKS

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