Nice Weekend, All in All

The remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy have moved out to make way for a nice weekend, overall.

Outdoors as of 8am on this Saturday, we have thick clouds in spots and full sunshine in others!

Temperatures are on their way….climbing through the 70s.

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Humidity, meanwhile, is on its way down.  As a northwest wind gets established today, dew points will fall through the 60s back into the 50s.  That’ll be a refreshing change since we’ve had Caribbean type humidity for the last couple of days!

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Temperatures this afternoon will soar into the 80s…but we should all avoid the 90s.

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With all that said, it’ll work out well to hang out by the pool or go to an area lake either today or tomorrow.  Tomorrow will be even less humid, so when you get out of the water it might actually feel a little cool!

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If you have plans to be out & about tonight, the weather looks great!  Monster Jam will be at Nissan Stadium.  Here’s the forecast for that.

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Looking ahead further, expect low humidity to linger through Tuesday.  Monday and Tuesday will be at least five degrees cooler than average!  Then, late this week, heat will gradually return.  Humidity will follow suit.

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Alan Frio and I will be on Channel 4 News Today between 9am and 10am with more on our weather, plus the overnight news.  We hope you kick off your weekend by joining us!

DT

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June 23: Afternoon Update on Cindy

The remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy are moving faster than we anticipated the past couple of days, and that’s good news for us!  Faster movement means that the severe weather threat won’t last as long, and it also means that the flooding potential won’t be as worrisome.  That said, we’re not completely out of the woods just yet.

Round Two of Cindy’s rain is moving across the Midstate this afternoon, bringing moderate to heavy rain.  A couple of “Areal Flood Advisories” (not as dire as Flash Flood Warnings) have been issued, but so far we haven’t seen any substantial problems.  The rain will continue this afternoon and evening, as shown here by the HRRR model’s radar simulation through early tomorrow morning:

The eastern half of the Midstate (roughly) is under a Tornado Watch until 8:00pm:

Storms that work their way up from Mississippi and Alabama will have the greatest potential to produce brief spin-ups.  Damaging straight line winds will also be possible.  Despite that 8pm expiration time, I think the greatest threat around here should be wrapped up by 6pm or so.

The rain will taper off tonight, and Saturday and Sunday look fantastic!  Highs will be in the low to mid 80s with plenty of sun and lower humidity:

The nice weather will continue most of next week, with just a slight shower chance here and there.  Tune into our evening newscasts for the 7-day forecast, plus the up-to-the-minute latest on Cindy’s severe weather threat.

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A 4WARN Weather Alert Day

Calm and peaceful this morning! Don’t let this fool you…

***Today is a 4WARN Weather alert day!***

VIDEO TVI

Our main weather maker is Tropical Depression Cindy, currently pushing out of Arkansas and Alabama, tracking northeast at 14 mph with sustained winds of 15 mph.

DAPHNE TROPICAL FORECAST

Remnants of Cindy is already making an appearance with widespread rain just west of Middle Tennessee and continues spreading eastward.  Heavy downpours will be possible through late morning before the intensity likely picks up by the afternoon, lasting through the evening.

VIDEO RADAR

It is warm! 8:11 am temperatures run anywhere from the low to upper 70s and because of a thick deck of cloud cover, we won’t warm much further, only touching the upper 70s to lower 80s.WSMV DMA TEMPS ZOOM1_EffectSquiggle Autoplot

Also feeling very sticky out there. Dew points in the lower 70-degree range is a very uncomfy and sticky place to be. (side note of relief: you’ll notice a significant difference for the better by tomorrow! Humidity drops by a large margin!WSMV DMA DEWPOINT STILL1

Here’s the timing of the shower and storm activity today…DD RPM 4KM EVENINGDD RPM 4KM EVENING1DD RPM 4KM EVENING3DD RPM 4KM EVENING4DD RPM 4KM EVENING5DD RPM 4KM EVENING6DD RPM 4KM EVENING7

Here’s the latest form the Storm Prediction Center– all of the Mid State under a ‘Slight Risk’ (level 2 on a 1 to 5 scale) for any storms to reach severe criteria. Damaging wind, flash flooding and isolated tornadoes are all the greatest threats.

DAPHNE SEVERE RISK REGION BOX

I expect an improving pattern as soon as tonight! Lingering moisture keeps the chance for scattered showers through late into the overnight, but as far as the severe-weather threat, it is safe to say that diminishes significantly. So, here’s how much rain we’ve received so far…VIDEO RADAR2

and how much rain that is yet to come…DAPHNE ECMWF RAIN

We are talking anywhere from 1-3″ with locally heavier amounts. This puts a good chunk of Middle Tennessee under a FLASH FLOOD WATCH through noon on Saturday. This means conditions are FAVORABLE for flash flooding so you’ want to stay tuned for updates. Dd WATCH2

One way to do that is to download our free and handy, ‘WSMV WX’ app! This will alert you with watches and warnings, while you’re on the go.4WARN_APP1

Be sure to go under settings and turn the ‘Severe Weather’ alert button ON.4WARN_APP2

After today, we are in for a treat! A stretch of sunshine, a break from the humidity and highs anywhere from the low to upper 80s.WSMV 7 Day AM

I’ll have an update on Tropical Depression Cindy’s track and your weekend forecast coming up on Channel 4 at noon today. You’ll want to stay tuned for updates with Paul Heggen this evening!

-Meteorologist Daphne DeLoren

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4WARN Weather Alert on Friday

A 4WARN Weather Alert is in effect for Friday!  Strong to severe storms are possible on Friday with the added threat for flash flooding.

DT SEVERE STORM THREAT

Early in the morning, expect just showers.  Heavy thunderstorms will develop and organize by midday, as the main band of weather approaches Nashville.  Through the afternoon, the best chance for torrential rain and severe weather will push through eastern Middle Tennessee and over south central Kentucky.

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This potentially dangerous weather will be in response to the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy….moving through southern Arkansas tonight, on its way toward the Midwest.

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Most of the Mid State is in a “Slight Risk” area for severe storms on Friday.  That’s a level 2 threat, on a scale of 1 to 5.

DT_SEVERE RISK REGION

Look at FUTURECAST below.  Notice at 4pm, the computer depicts many mini supercells (as shown by their kidney bean shape) moving east of the I-65 corridor.  While it all won’t go exactly this way, if we get enough sunshine earlier in the day and temperatures reach the lower-middle 80s, severe storms will be likely.

SO….Friday is definitely a day to remain weather aware and prepared.  Download and configure the *free* 4WARN Weather app as you see below, to ensure any watches and warnings issued reach you instantly!

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Temperatures Friday will peak in Nashville around midday.  Then, as the rain moves through, we’ll cool some.

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All this rain will wrap up very early on Saturday.  Count on breaking clouds through Saturday as less humid air trickles in.  Sunday will be absolutely gorgeous, with sunshine, highs in the lower 80s, lows near 60, and low humidity!

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Be sure to watch Daphne DeLoren Friday morning on Channel 4 News Today for an update.  Paul Heggen will track the storms for you on Channel 4  News at 4pm, 5pm, 6pm, 6:30pm, and 10pm Friday night.

DT

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June 22: Wet and Stormy 48 Hours Ahead

Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall overnight in southwestern Louisiana — the storm will move north and farther inland today, becoming “extra-tropical” (meaning it will lose its tropical characteristics) tonight and tomorrow.  The center of what’s left of Cindy will track directly over the Midstate late Friday:

The first wave of Cindy’s rain moved into the Midstate this morning.  Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are likely through midday, then we’ll see more of a scattered pattern to the storms this afternoon and evening.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows the action between now and late evening:

Temperatures will reach up to around 80° in between the storms this afternoon:That’s warm enough for some of the late-day storms to become marginally severe, but the greatest severe threat today will be closer to the center of Tropical Storm Cindy, off to our south and southwest:

We’ll see a little break from the rain tonight and early Friday — scattered showers will still be possible, but they shouldn’t be a major concern.  Another round of heavier rain and thunderstorms will head our way tomorrow afternoon and evening, as the remnants of Cindy move this way.  Our RPM model’s radar simulation is…um, “colorful”:

The main feature of those storm will be torrential rainfall, which is likely to cause localized flooding problems, and could even cause widespread issues.  Adding up the rainfall over the next 48 hours, the same forecast model shows most of the Midstate picking up at least 4″, with some places approaching 6″ (the yellow areas):

About 1″-2″ of that will fall today, which means we’re talking about 3″-5″ of rain falling onto already-wet ground on Friday.  The National Weather Service office in Nashville hasn’t issued a Flash Flood Watch just yet, but I expect them to do so later today.  The Weather Prediction Center (a separate NOAA agency) shows a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) of excessive rain over much of the Midstate, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) elsewhere:

If you live in a spot that tends to have flooding issues (or if your access roads tend to flood), you could have some problems by tomorrow evening.  In addition to the flooding potential, some of the afternoon/evening storms could be severe, with the threat of damaging winds and even isolated tornadoes (typical of a weakening tropical cyclone).  The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms for about half of the Midstate:

I really think they’ll need to expand that risk out to the Tennessee River as well.  The SPC’s own forecast model shows a 50-70% chance of storms with severe characteristics over most of the Midstate and back into West Tennessee late Friday afternoon:

The individual severe-weather statistics aren’t off the charts, but they’re high enough to get my attention.

Bottom line: stay weather-aware today and tomorrow, especially Friday afternoon and evening.  I’ll be posting updates on social media (links at the bottom of this post), and of course we’ll have you covered during our newscasts.

The rain will move through by early Saturday, leaving us with a mostly dry and mild weekend.  I’m leaving a 20% chance of rain in the forecast Saturday through Tuesday, but even that is only out of an abundance of caution.  Little ripples in the atmospheric flow could produce a shower or two, but generally we’re looking at dry weather from Saturday through most of next week:

Cooler-than-normal temperatures will prevail, along with lower-than-normal humidity!  Basically, we just need to get through the next 36-48 hours, then we can relax.

No nerd-links today or tomorrow, since Cindy’s impact on our weather has my full attention…

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Social media links

Twitter: @WSMVweather, @PaulHeggenWSMV, @WSMVLisaSpencer, @WSMVDanThomas, @daphne_deloren, @NWSNashville

Facebook: 4WARN Weather, Paul Heggen WSMV, Lisa Spencer, Dan Thomas WSMV, Daphne DeLoren, NWS Nashville

Instagram: PaulHeggenWSMV

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4WARN Weather Alert: Tropical Storm Cindy on Its Way

Tropical Storm Cindy is on its way to the Louisiana/Texas Gulf Coast.  After that, it’ll pay a visit to Middle Tennessee!  A 4WARN Weather Alert has been issued for our area for Friday because of Cindy’s expected impacts here.

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Here’s in a nutshell what we can expect over the next couple of days…

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Notice how huge the storm is.  The cloud mass extends 1,500 miles….from Cozumel, Mexico all the way northward to northern Ohio!

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Rain is in bands with Cindy….with the heaviest now down in south Alabama and north Florida, rotating in our direction.

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FUTURECAST for the overnight shows how the rain will develop over the Mid State.  Be ready for a rainy morning commute across much of the area.

We’ll likely transition from steady rain in the morning to patchy rain during the afternoon.  A little sunshine will be possible once that initial morning rain band pushes through.  That will allow many communities to climb into the lowermost 80s for highs.  Know that if we warm enough during the afternoon, any storms that develop could become severe.  The threat of that though is relatively low though — “Marginal” as classified by the Storm Prediction Center.

WSMV Day Planner Half

On Friday, more rain is expected plus a more significant threat for severe weather.  A 4WARN Weather Alert is in effect for Friday with that higher severe threat and an even better chance for some localized flooding.

I’ll share much more on that coming up in less than an hour, on Channel 4 News at 10pm.  Join us!

DT

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June 21: Tracking Cindy, Daily Links

WEATHER

The big weather story is obviously Tropical Storm Cindy — the center of the storm is still out over the Gulf of Mexico, but it’s spreading rain onshore along the Gulf Coast, and it’s sending high cloud cover over our heads already:

The center of circulation will make landfall near Lake Charles, Louisiana late tonight:

Even with the high clouds overhead, the first full day of summer will definitely feel like it, with increasing humidity and high temperatures near 90° this afternoon:

We’ll see a slight chance of afternoon and evening storms near the TN-AL state line, as the outer edge of Tropical Storm Cindy begins to influence the Midstate — that’s why temperatures there will be slightly cooler.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows those showers (maybe a thunderstorm?) in southern Middle Tennessee before a larger area of rain approaches late tonight:

The center of Cindy will still be hundreds of miles to our southwest tomorrow, but the first surge of substantial moisture will already give us our first good chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Our RPM model shows off-and-on activity throughout the day:

A few storms could be strong tomorrow, but the greatest severe weather threat will be closer to the center of what’s left of Cindy, well to our southwest:

We’ll get a chance to dry out a bit Thursday night and early Friday, before another round of heavy rain moves in late Friday.  Returning to the RPM model for the when/where:

Tropical systems are tricky, so we’ll be making tweaks to the timing and placement forecast over the next 48 hours as we get more data.  Localized flooding will be a concern, with 2″-4″ of rain possible through early Saturday morning…again, this pattern could shift around depending on the track Cindy’s remnants:

Because there will be a break between the rounds of heavy rainfall, I’m cautiously optimistic we’ll be able to avoid any widespread flooding.  But we’ll also see a chance of damaging winds or even an isolated tornado on Friday — these tropical storms maintain a decent amount of spin even once they move ashore, so we’ll be watching carefully for any signs of small-scale rotation.  The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) for severe weather over southern Middle Tennessee:

I think they’ll have to shift or expand that northward — the SPC’s own forecast model is showing a 50%+ chance of storms with severe ingredients across the Midstate late Friday:

Most of Cindy’s influence should move off to the east in time for the weekend…but I’ll emphasize this point again: tropical systems are tricky.  The two main long-range forecast models agree that Saturday should be mostly dry after a few lingering early-morning showers.  But they’re painting vastly different pictures on Sunday — the American GFS model shows dry weather for the second half of the weekend:

But the European model shows more showers and storms on Sunday:

Usually I buy what the Euro is selling, but not this time — I think the northerly flow of air (that will kick in as what’s left of Cindy moves east) will drag drier air into the Midstate.  My level of confidence in disagreeing with the European model can only be expressed in GIF form:

Therefore, I haven’t removed rain chances entirely from the weekend forecast:

If you have outdoor plans for the weekend, here’s the bottom line…while the dry-weekend chances look more favorable than they did at this point yesterday, we’re not out of the woods yet.  Be flexible with any outdoor plans, and stay plugged-into the forecast as the whole situation evolves.

 

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