Severe Thunderstorms Expected Tomorrow

Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of Middle Tennessee on Friday.  The most likely time window is late afternoon through the evening.  The most likely area to be impacted is southern Kentucky and communities east of I-24.

Outdoors as of 9am today, it was already very warm.

DMA Temps_NoSponsor

Humidity was reasonable for late July, with most dew points running in the 60s.

DMA Dew Points.png

This afternoon, isolated showers and thundershowers will be possible.  Western Middle Tennessee runs the highest chance of picking up any rain today.

Highs this afternoon will be in the 90s for most of us.

iCAST TodaysHighs

Tonight, higher humidity will overspread the entire Mid State.  Tomorrow will turn hot and be oppressively muggy.  Those two factors combined with a bundle of energy moving in in the upper atmosphere will make for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms late tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Northern Middle Tennessee, the Cumberland Plateau, and southern Kentucky are at greatest risk.  There, the threat is classified as “enhanced” which is a level 3 threat on a scale of 1 to 5.  The rest of the Mid State is in a level 2 threat area, which is still reflective of a good chance of scattered strong-severe thunderstorms.  The “marginal risk” area shows where severe storms are least likely, but still possible.

SEVERERisk_DMAOnly

Breaking down the threats tomorrow, large hail (golf ball size in some instances), damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes will all be possible.  Flash flooding will be unlikely due to the fact that storms will be moving along at a good rate of speed.

SEVERE THREAT

FUTURECAST shows the latest timing.

Now please don’t let this weather blog be the last weather update you receive before tomorrow’s potential storms.  Know you should check back early and often with us for the latest on the expected threats and timing for your area.  Melanie Layden will have an update at noon today.  Lisa Spencer will share her thoughts on News4 at 4pm.  We hope you can join us then.

DT

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1 Response to Severe Thunderstorms Expected Tomorrow

  1. Fred says:

    Earlier today the temperature dropped to 69 degrees. This is the first instance of temps below 70 since 68 degrees measured on June 23. The streak of 25 days at or above 70, while 15th-longest overall, compares pretty well to most such streaks, though nowhere near the top two extremely long stretches:

    49 – 2016-07-03 through 2016-08-20
    41 – 1955-07-03 through 1955-08-12
    30 – 2012-06-29 through 2012-07-28
    30 – 2011-07-03 through 2011-08-01
    30 – 1993-06-30 through 1993-07-29
    30 – 1921-06-22 through 1921-07-21
    30 – 1876-06-24 through 1876-07-23
    29 – 1949-06-24 through 1949-07-22
    28 – 2007-08-14 through 2007-09-10
    27 – 2001-07-17 through 2001-08-12
    26 – 2010-07-12 through 2010-08-06
    26 – 1988-07-29 through 1988-08-23
    26 – 1935-07-18 through 1935-08-12
    26 – 1900-08-04 through 1900-08-29
    25 – 2018-06-24 through 2018-07-18

    Period of record: 1873-12-01 to 2018-07-18

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