April 2: Storm on the Way

4WARN Weather Alert is in effect for Tuesday evening for the likelihood that severe thunderstorms pass through Middle Tennessee. Warm moist air will move in across the Mid State before a cold front moves through late tomorrow night.

Tonight will stay mild as the wind shifts to a southerly direction as a warm front moves through. Tomorrow will turn windy and very warm. Highs unseasonably warm in the 70s. The winds have prompted a Wind Advisory with sustained winds expected to be 20-30 mph. with higher gusts. Good idea to secure lawn furniture and trash cans tomorrow.

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Tomorrow evening, a line of strong-severe thunderstorms will pass through. Damaging wind is the main severe threat. Severe thunderstorms are most likely over northwestern Middle Tennessee and least likely over southeastern Middle Tennessee. The storms will enter from the northwest around sunset, pass through Nashville around 9-10pm, and will exit to the east just after midnight. Here is the latest Futurecast timing.

FutCAST RPM4km SATRAD1FutCAST RPM4km SATRAD2FutCAST RPM4km SATRAD3FutCAST RPM4km SATRAD4FutCAST RPM4km SATRAD5

The most likely area for severe storms at this time is northwest Middle Tennessee where there is an Enhanced risk zone, a 3 on the 1-5 scale, highlighted in the orange. A Slight risk zone is in yellow, that’s 2 on the 1-5 scale.

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The greatest threat will be damaging wind, but some large hail and isolated tornadoes are also possible.

SEVERE THREAT.png

 

Wednesday will be much cooler. Thursday morning will be frosty, with some areas at or below 32 degrees. Friday into Saturday will turn unsettled again.

2018 4DAY UBER

I’ll have an update on News 4 at 10pm.

Lisa Spencer

 

About Lisa Spencer

Lisa Spencer is the chief meteorologist at WSMV Channel 4 Nashville. You can catch her weathercasts weekdays at 4pm, 5pm, 6pm, 6:30pm and 10pm.
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3 Responses to April 2: Storm on the Way

  1. Fred says:

    March review, April look ahead

    March 2018 was a pretty normal month, overall, yet, probably felt colder, since it was preceded by a lengthy spell of abnormally warm weather. At 50.5 degrees, it was half a degree above the norm, just marginally warmer than February, which averaged at 50.1. The highest temperature of 80 deg. (on the 17th) was, actually, lower than February’s maximum of 82, an unusual occurrence. The greatest negative departure between February an March maximums, however, was back in 1958, 71 and 61, respectively, the latter being the all-time lowest max temp for March. There were only two days (17th and 28th) when the excess of daily mean temperature was in double digits, compared to eleven in the preceding month. Precipitation of 4.83 inches was 0.72″ above the currently defined average. March, by some measures, is the wettest month in Nashville, yet the last time it was really wet was in 2002, when 9.4″ fell. What’s more, is that in 16 years since, only once March’s total reached the 5″ mark, in 2008, when 5.56″ was measured, something no other month can boast. For six consecutive years the precipitation total for March is 4+ inches. Both the occurrences are unprecedented, as far as the March records are concerned (could be true for other month, as well). The table below illustrates this:

    Year Mar
    2002 9.40
    2003 2.30
    2004 4.81
    2005 3.90
    2006 2.90
    2007 2.26
    2008 5.56
    2009 2.92
    2010 3.52
    2011 4.59
    2012 3.11
    2013 4.32
    2014 4.36
    2015 4.29
    2016 4.33
    2017 4.02
    2018 4.83

    Snowfall totaled 0.6 inches, being 0.3 ” less than the average for March. It was measured on the 8th and 12th (0.3″ apiece) and there were, also, trace amounts on 20 & 21. This is in contrast to February, when snow was totally absent.
    Turning to the current month, two things now seem likely: chilly or seasonable weather in the days ahead, which is certainly refreshing compared to last year, which saw the hottest-ever April, and, more rain. With March refusing to get wet and May being on a dry cycle for the last seven years, April has usurped the title of the wettest spring month, indeed, the wettest month, period. A rather safe prediction is that there’ll be ample precipitation before April is complete.

  2. Lisa Spencer says:

    Thank you Fred!

  3. Fred says:

    Glad to hear it, as always, Lisa!

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