November 17: 4WARN Alert Tomorrow

Get ready to ride the temperature roller-coaster for the next few days:

Warm and breezy conditions will prevail overnight, with temperatures steady throughout the evening in the mid to upper 50s, then rising to the low 60s even before the sun comes up Saturday morning:

Very windy conditions on Saturday, with sustained winds 20 to 30 mph out of the south, and even higher gusts:

Those winds will help to push temperatures up to around 70°:

A good chance of showers and thunderstorms will move in from the northwest Saturday afternoon, with some of the storms becoming potentially severe:

That’s one version of one model, of course…the atmosphere will do what it wants, so here’s an estimate of when the strongest storms will arrive:

Damaging straight-line winds will be the primary threat:

The Storm Prediction Center has included the entire Midstate in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms:

I wouldn’t be shocked if a small “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) area is eventually drawn up that includes parts of the Midstate — this is a borderline severe weather risk overall, but there will be a LOT of wind energy in the atmosphere overhead.  Dan Thomas and I will be here throughout the day Saturday, and we’ll pass along any warnings as soon as they’re issued.

Colder air will come crashing in behind the rain, with temperatures on Sunday starting off in the mid 30s and only warming up to the upper 40s:

If you’re thinking about putting up some Christmas decorations, allow me to advise against that — it will still be breezy, which will make it feel even colder.

A calmer weather pattern is in store next week, with near-normal temperatures and just a slight rain chance:

Don’t worry about that 20% chance — there’s juuuuuuuust enough of a rain signal in the long-range data that I can’t completely rule out a passing shower.

Social media links

Twitter: @WSMVweather, @PaulHeggenWSMV, @WSMVLisaSpencer, @WSMVDanThomas, @daphne_deloren, @NWSNashville

Facebook: 4WARN Weather, Paul Heggen WSMV, Lisa Spencer, Dan Thomas WSMV, Daphne DeLoren, NWS Nashville

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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2 Responses to November 17: 4WARN Alert Tomorrow

  1. Carla Pope says:

    I’m really going to miss your nerd blogs do you think that you might be able to keep reporting middle Tennessee’s weather on face book along with Raleigh NC

  2. Kelsey says:

    So very very sorry that you’re leaving the Nashville area market. You will truly be missed. I do want to wish you and yours the very best in your new home. I can’t believe that they replaced you with Daffy!!!

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