November 17: Warm Then Stormy, Nerd-Links


Temperatures will drop quickly this evening, falling all the way down to the low to mid 30s by early Friday morning:

Strong southerly winds will kick in by late morning, warming us up to the low to mid 60s by Friday afternoon:

Just a slight shower chance to the northwest of Nashville late in the day Friday — I wouldn’t worry about it.

A much better chance of showers and thunderstorms moves in from the northwest on Saturday.  It will be very warm and windy before the storms arrive, with high temperatures around 70°, and southwesterly winds gusting over 30 mph:

The specific timing of the storms is still subject to further revision, but here’s how things are shaping up right now:

Some of the storms could be strong — there will be ample wind energy overhead, but very little instability (“storm fuel”) so at this point widespread severe weather doesn’t look very likely.  The Storm Prediction Center has included us in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) for severe weather, with damaging straight-line winds the primary threat:

That means we can expect numerous storms, a few of which could produce wind gusts over 60 mph.  The SPC’s forecast model is estimating a 5%-10% chance of storms with severe characteristics Saturday afternoon, which matches up very well:

I wouldn’t lose any sleep over the severe weather threat, but I also wouldn’t plan anything outdoors on Saturday — despite the warmth early in the day, it will be very windy, and the afternoon will be flat-out WET.

Colder air will come crashing in behind the storms, with temperatures on Sunday starting off in the 30s and only topping out in the upper 40s:

Near-normal temperatures will prevail most of next week, with just a slight rain chance around midweek:



About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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