November 15: Stormy Saturday, Nerd-Links

LINKS

Scattered showers will move out of the Midstate this evening, and the last of the sprinkles should fall by midnight.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows that pattern:

We’ll see decreasing clouds early in the day on Thursday, with temperatures warming up from around 40° in the morning to the mid to upper 50s in the afternoon:

A bigger warm-up is in store Friday, with temperatures going from the mid 30s in the morning to the mid 60s in the afternoon:

We’ll see increasing clouds on Friday, with a slight chance of showers, mostly to the northwest of Nashville late in the day.  I wouldn’t worry about it.

Saturday will be warm and windy, with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west around midday:

That’s still a VERY early estimate by Futurecast — the specific storm-arrival times will be narrowed down over the next couple of days.  As the storms move in, the wind energy in the atmosphere overhead will be quite impressive…but it doesn’t look like there will be much instability (“storm fuel”) to fuel a significant severe weather threat.  The Storm Prediction Center’s ensemble model shows just a 1%-5% chance of storms with severe weather ingredients at that time:

That said, the wind energy is really impressive — I expect that the SPC will settle on a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for the Midstate.  (That outlook will come out late tonight.)  So while I’ll say that severe weather doesn’t look likely at this point, it’s something we’ll keep an eye on.  If the timing of the storms changes, that could help the atmosphere align things for a more-significant threat.

Chillier weather settles in behind that system, with highs on Sunday only in the upper 40s:

We’ll warm back up to near-normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with increasing rain chances.  We’ll get an early look at Thanksgiving’s weather pattern tomorrow…

 

LINKS

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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