LINKS
Scattered showers will move out of the Midstate this evening, and the last of the sprinkles should fall by midnight. The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows that pattern:
We’ll see decreasing clouds early in the day on Thursday, with temperatures warming up from around 40° in the morning to the mid to upper 50s in the afternoon:
A bigger warm-up is in store Friday, with temperatures going from the mid 30s in the morning to the mid 60s in the afternoon:
We’ll see increasing clouds on Friday, with a slight chance of showers, mostly to the northwest of Nashville late in the day. I wouldn’t worry about it.
Saturday will be warm and windy, with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms moving in from the west around midday:
That’s still a VERY early estimate by Futurecast — the specific storm-arrival times will be narrowed down over the next couple of days. As the storms move in, the wind energy in the atmosphere overhead will be quite impressive…but it doesn’t look like there will be much instability (“storm fuel”) to fuel a significant severe weather threat. The Storm Prediction Center’s ensemble model shows just a 1%-5% chance of storms with severe weather ingredients at that time:
That said, the wind energy is really impressive — I expect that the SPC will settle on a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for the Midstate. (That outlook will come out late tonight.) So while I’ll say that severe weather doesn’t look likely at this point, it’s something we’ll keep an eye on. If the timing of the storms changes, that could help the atmosphere align things for a more-significant threat.
Chillier weather settles in behind that system, with highs on Sunday only in the upper 40s:
We’ll warm back up to near-normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with increasing rain chances. We’ll get an early look at Thanksgiving’s weather pattern tomorrow…
LINKS
- Flooding has killed at least 14 people in Greece and additional rain is ahead thanks to a slow-moving storm in the Mediterranean Sea.
- The 2017 hurricane season is finally fading away. But what comes next?
- The National Hurricane Center issued its most-accurate forecasts on record this year…just when it mattered the most.
- Does pollution increase lightning strikes? (I did some research in graduate school into whether urban pollution affects the polarity of lightning strikes and didn’t find a link…but this study is just looking at the raw number of strikes.)
- Hurricane Harvey swim trunks — seriously? — are a thing on Amazon.
- Climate change is warming the Great Lakes, meaning more lake effect snow — for now. (And there’s a LOT of year-to-year fluctuation, so the data is really noisy.)
- The Leonid meteor shower peaks late this week, but unfortunately we’ll have quite a bit of clouds overhead at that point.
- Why Pluto is much colder than predicted.
- There’s a new place to look for life in the universe — a recently-discovered planet about 11 light-years from Earth.
- Simulations of the universe rely on Newton’s outdated theory of gravity. But some cosmologists want to go full-on Einstein.
- When you get a stitch in your side, what’s really going on?
- Heading a soccer ball might hurt women’s brains more than men’s.
- Too many Zzzzs? 9 hours of sleep may raise the risk of heart disease in older women.
