November 5: Stormy Tonight

We tied the record high temperature in Nashville today:

This weekend’s record warmth comes to an end tonight, as a cold front brings a good chance of thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe.  The best chance of storms arrives well after sunset, and continues into the early hours of Monday morning, as shown here by the HRRR model’s radar simulation:

The overall severe threat will diminish after midnight — here’s when you can expect the strongest storms in your neighborhood:

The best chance of severe storms will be to the northwest of Nashville, with damaging straight-line winds, hail, and even isolated tornadoes possible:

The northwestern corner of the Midstate is where the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) of severe weather, with areas along and north of I-40 included in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5):

This isn’t an off-the-charts severe weather threat, but it is the most significant storm chance we’ve seen in quite a while.  Plan on staying weather-aware overnight — you can set up the 4WARN mobile app to alert you if warnings are issued in your area:

The rain will exit early Monday, with temperatures stuck in the 60s throughout the day:

Another chance of showers and thunderstorms will move across the Midstate Monday evening and overnight:

The unsettled weather pattern will continue into midweek, then we dry out and cool down by Thursday, Friday and Saturday:

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Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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