November 1: Warm and Unsettled Pattern, Daily Links


We’re starting off the month of November on a warm and wet note, and this pattern will stick around for quite a while.  Above-average temperatures this time of year aren’t the worst thing in the world, but it’s an annoying rain forecast — no one day will be a complete washout, and no one day will be completely dry either.

We’ve been in a little break from the showers for most of the afternoon, but another round of scattered showers will move through this evening and tonight, as shown here on the HRRR model’s radar simulation:

Temperatures will remain very warm for early November — we’ll start off Thursday morning around 60°:

And we’ll warm up to the low to mid 70s by Thursday afternoon:

Once a few early-morning showers move away, we’ll see just an isolated shower chance the rest of the day.  A better chance of scattered showers and some non-severe storms will develop on Friday — here’s an early look ahead at what the BAMS model thinks the radar will look like:

The overall weather pattern will remain warm and unsettled through the weekend and into early next week.  High temperatures Friday through Tuesday will reach the low to mid 70s, possibly even near 80° on Sunday!

Sunday is also the driest day in the forecast, with every other day bringing us a 40%-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms.  This is a tricky weather pattern, because the little “ripples” in the atmosphere that will spark the best rain chances are very hard to pin down.  We’ll keep you updated day-by-day, so you can adjust any outdoor plans if Mother Nature has different ideas.



About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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1 Response to November 1: Warm and Unsettled Pattern, Daily Links

  1. Fred says:

    The scythe of the Autumnal Reaper closed the book on another month and, much like September, it was, a tale of two halves. The first 15 days, the continuation of the month-long spell of unseasonable warmth, were the warmest since 1973, the remaining half, however, was dominated by seriously chilly weather. As a result, there was an unusually large range of temperature variation for October: the warmest day (10th) was quite July-esque, the daily mean being 79 degrees, while the coolest (29th) would be typical for mid-December with the mean less than 40. Still, October 2017 ended up being 2.3 deg. above-normal, 5th-warmest in this century (behind 2016, 2007, 2004 and 2000) and 40th overall. Precipitation, at 3.48″, was somewhat above average. October is, typically, the clearest month in Nashville, and last month was only slightly more cloudy than normal, but the number of fair days was distinctly less than could be expected: 8 vs 13. This is in sharp contrast to September, which had 18 such days. The forecast, unfortunately, calls for more gray in the coming days but, at least, we’ll catch a break from the cold.

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