October 12: Warmer Weather Ahead

Once again, the sun struggled to peek through the stubborn cloud cover today, which kept temperatures on the cool side.  We’ll drop down to the low 50s overnight, with patchy dense fog developing in the areas that did clear out today:

We should see more sunshine emerging on Friday, allowing temperatures to warm up to the mid to upper 70s:

The weekend is still looking warm and increasingly muggy, with highs in the mid 80s Saturday and and the low 80s Sunday:

The next chance of showers and thunderstorms heads our way on Sunday, but at this point severe weather does not look like a cause for concern.

Once that system moves through, temperatures will return to near-normal levels early next week:

I didn’t have time to collect the nerd-links today, but there will be plenty of nerdy reading material in tomorrow’s blog post!

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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One Response to October 12: Warmer Weather Ahead

  1. Fred says:

    OK, the wave of unseasonable heat and humidity has passed, so it’s time to survey the damage, so to speak. From the 8th through the 10th, temps never dropped below 70, setting the record-high minimums for the 8th and 10th, and tying the record for the 9th. Three days with the low temperatures of 70 or above, currently, places October 2017 in a tie for 3rd-most, alongside 1986, 1954 and 1898. Only Octobers of 1939, 1941 and 1919 had more such days, the most (5) being recorded in 1939. The sweltering low of 74 on the 10th is just a degree short of the all-time record for October (from 1910), such a high low was observed in only three other instances (1986, 1941, 1911). The oppressive humidity, also, put this month in the record territory. On Tuesday, 10th, dew points peaked at an exceptional value of 75. As far as reliable measurements are concerned, this tied the record-high value for the tenth calendar month (the only other instance was measured on October 7, 1982), furthermore, the daily average dew point on the muggy Tuesday was a virtually unprecedented 73, something much more appropriate for the dog days of summer. As can be evidenced from the following table, measuring the hourly dew point extremes, the current month is heavily represented:

    https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&_l=on&network=TN_ASOS&zstation=BNA&month=oct&var=max_dwpf&dpi=100&_fmt=png

    Another table shows the number of hours of the dew point measurements in the 70+ range. Even though, the data goes back no further than 1973, it still provides a striking illustration of just how unusual the recent stifling humidity was, as over the span of five days, from the 7th through 11th, nearly 80 such hours had been recorded, putting to shame the competition of the last 44 years:

    https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=159&_l=on&network=TN_ASOS&zstation=BNA&var=dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=70&month=oct&year=2017&dpi=100&_fmt=png

    As impressive as these records are, they, unfortunately, have contributed considerably to turning the month when the skies are at their clearest over Nashville (October, generally, has the lowest monthly sky cover, as well as, the greatest likelihood for cloudless days) into a rather cloudy affair. Hopefully, things will clear in the coming days, as the forecast indicates.

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