October 7: Here Comes Nate

Hurricane Nate is steadily moving northward, maintaining 90 mph sustained winds:

Nate is expected to make landfall in southern Mississippi late tonight with the same intensity — that puts Mobile in the right-front quadrant of the storm, with the greatest impacts from storm surge, wind damage, coastal erosion, and flooding rains:

From there, Nate will take more of a turn to the northeast, a path that brings it along the Cumberland Plateau on Sunday and Sunday night:

The Midstate won’t experience anything close to hurricane force winds, but conditions will be gusty enough in eastern Middle Tennessee late Sunday afternoon and evening to warrant a Wind Advisory:

The moisture associated with Hurricane Nate is making its way into the Midstate already, and we’ll see increasing rain chances the rest of tonight, with showers and thunderstorms likely throughout the day on Sunday:

Here’s the HRRR model’s radar simulation through 9am Sunday:

There’s an outside chance that a storm or two could become briefly severe tonight — the Storm Prediction Center has included our northwestern counties in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) for severe storms, with damaging winds the primary threat:

There was a tornado warning issued for Henry and Calloway counties around 6pm, but there were no reports of a tornado touching down. In general, we’ll just see a good soaking rain.

Temperatures tonight will only drop to around 70°, and we’ll remain in the 70s all day Sunday, with ample humidity:

We’ll get a brief break from the widespread rain on Monday, then another round of showers and thunderstorms heads our way on Tuesday.  Adding up the rain through midweek, we’re looking at 1″-3″ of rain for most of us, with some areas approaching 4″:

Because we’ve been so dry lately (today’s rain snaps Nashville’s rain-free streak at 15 days), flooding is unlikely.  The forecast finally dries out by the end of next week, with temperatures returning to substantially-above-average levels:

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Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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