October 5: Higher Rain Chances Ahead, Nerd-Links


Our stretch of above average temperatures won’t come to an end anytime soon, even with an increase in our rain chances over the weekend and into early next week.  In fact, thanks to Tropical Storm Nate, we’ll experience an increase in humidity too.

Temperatures tonight will drop to the upper 50s…

…then we’ll warm up to the mid to upper 80s for highs Friday afternoon:

We’ll still reach the mid 80s on Saturday, but with more cloud cover and a better chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the day:

The RPM model’s radar simulation shows moisture associated with Tropical Storm Nate (probably a hurricane by that point) making more of a run towards us by late afternoon:

Tropical Storm Nate is currently centered over far eastern Honduras, moving to the north-northwest — it’s barely hanging onto tropical storm strength right now, but it will intensify once it moves over the very warm water of the western Caribbean:

The forecast path from the National Hurricane Center is farther west than it was 24 hours ago — it shows Nate clipping the Yucatan Peninsula, then reaching hurricane strength over the Gulf of Mexico:

The latest forecast calls for Nate to make landfall near New Orleans Sunday morning as a Category One hurricane:

Intensity estimates are the hardest part of hurricane forecasting, so everyone along the Gulf Coast is going to be sweating this one out.  After landfall, Nate will weaken quickly, but the remnants of the storm will head up our way Sunday and Monday:

Here’s what that means for the Midstate…the best chance of rain will arrive late Saturday night and stick around on Sunday — the Storm Prediction Center’s ensemble model is even showing a 30-40% chance of storms with severe-weather ingredients Sunday afternoon:

Scattered showers and storms will remain possible Monday and Tuesday of next week:

Despite the clouds and rain chances, temperatures will still reach the mid to upper 70s, which is above-normal for this time of year.



About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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