Early September felt more like early October, now early October is feeling more like early September — and the unseasonably warm weather will continue for the next several days. Temperatures tonight won’t be bad at all, dipping to the upper 50s:
More of the same in store Friday and Saturday, with just a very slight shower chance for the first half of the weekend:
The forecast for Sunday onward is still quite muddled, because of the potential influence of a new tropical system in the Caribbean.
That system is Tropical Depression #16, and it will move into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, strengthening to become Tropical Storm Nate along the way. Over the next three days, the forecast path takes the storm over Nicaragua and Honduras, then over the eastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula:
The forecast path after that point is still uncertain. The American GFS model brings a very weak storm onshore in Louisiana early Sunday morning:
The European forecast model (generally the more-accurate model) brings the system onshore as a hurricane in the Florida panhandle Monday morning:
The National Hurricane Center’s official forecast path leans heavily in the direction of the European scenario, but it’s about 24 hours faster. Also, the “cone of uncertainty” at landfall stretches all the way from Mississippi to just north of Tampa:
The NHC forecasts Nate to be a Category One hurricane at landfall — but there’s a lot of VERY warm water in the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico right now:
That’s the fuel for these storms, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this is another storm that explosively intensifies. If you have plans to visit the Gulf Coast this weekend or next week, you should at minimum pay close attention to the forecast for the next few days. (Personally, I’d be thinking of a “Plan B” in case you need to adjust your visit.) As the storm intensifies and begins to move, we’ll start to get a better idea of exactly where it will go and how strong it will be.
Here’s how all of that relates to us here in the Midstate: if the path is close enough to the Midstate and the storm moves quickly, we’ll see a better chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday AND Monday…but if it’s farther to the east and a little slower (which I think is the more-likely scenario), the bulk of the rainfall will avoid us until Monday. That’s why I’ve left the Sunday’s rain chances at less than 50-50, with a higher chance on Monday. We’ll keep you updated!
Time for some nerdery…
- This hurricane season has been brutal — but it’s not over yet. What’s coming next?
- This year has seen more territory covered by Category Five hurricanes than any other year on record in Atlantic.
- When a hurricane finally passes, it spreads deadly disease in its wake.
- Scientists have come up with some ideas on better ways to measure the rate at which the Earth-atmosphere system is warming.
- Remember that massive Antarctic iceberg that broke off during the summer? Here’s what it looks like now…
- I doubt anyone who reads these links really needs to have this explained, but just in case: What really comes out of an airplane? Contrails, not chemtrails.
- Physicists have confirmed that we’re not all living in a Matrix-esque computer simulation. (Unless that news is part of the simulation!)
- A new interpretation of quantum physics holds that the common conception of “reality” is too limited.
- The team behind the discovery of gravitational waves won the 2017 Nobel Prize in Physics, the ultimate fusion of theory and experiment.
- Three Americans won the Nobel Prize for Physiology because of their research on biological “clocks” and sleep.
- The oldest evidence of life on Earth has been found in northern Canada.
- How researchers are trying to replicate the origin of life on other worlds right here on Earth.
- It turns out the last image from the Rosetta spacecraft wasn’t the last image after all.
- Known unknowns: The dangers of North Korea’s H-bomb threat.
- You can actually be allergic to exercise.
- What actually happens when you pull a muscle?
- Dogs notice when other dogs (and people) feel sad.