September 17: A Warm and Unsettled Week Ahead

As we finish off the weekend and head into the new work week, the weather really isn’t going to change very much.  More warmth and humidity on the way Monday — temperatures will start in the mid 60s, with patchy dense fog possible once again:

We’ll end up in the mid to upper 80s, with a few spots maybe even touching 90°:

We could see some storms developing in the afternoon, mainly to the west and northwest of Nashville — the RPM model is pretty impressed with our rain chances:

But even to the west of I-65, it won’t rain all day — so our overall rain chances look like this across the Midstate:

I’m unconcerned about any of the storms becoming severe.

A better chance of spotty storms heads our way Tuesday, but temperatures will still reach the upper 80s.  The best chance of rain all week arrives on Wednesday, then we’re back to our typical late-summer 20%-30% storm chance Thursday through the weekend:

No end to the summertime warmth and humidity either, even as we enter the first days of fall late this week (autumn arrives at 3:02pm Friday) — highs will still top out in the mid to upper 80s.

Okay, here’s your daily update on what’s stirring in the tropics…we still have three named storms in the Atlantic Ocean:

Lee is expected to remain over open water and fall apart over the next several days.  Jose is still a Category One hurricane, spinning away off the East Coast.  The forecast path over the next five days keeps the center of circulation offshore, with the storm taking a turn to the east before it can hit New England.  Coastal erosion and dangerous rip currents are still likely up and down the East Coast throughout the upcoming week — proof that a tropical system doesn’t have to make landfall to cause some headaches:

Beyond five days, some of the forecast models take Jose straight east into the North Atlantic…while others show it making a complete loop (the National Hurricane Center forecast now leans in this direction), coming back around to threaten the East Coast again late next weekend or early next week:

Maria has reached hurricane status and is still strengthening — its forecast path has changed very little over the last 24 hours.  Unfortunately, that means the Windward Islands, the US Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico — the same places damaged by Hurricane Irma — are directly in the path of yet another major storm:

There isn’t much doubt amongst the various forecast models regarding Maria’s path over the next 5 days:

However, the extended forecast for Maria is really muddled…a lot depends on what Jose does farther to the north.  If Jose loops around to approach the East Coast again, that could keep Maria farther out at sea (think of two positive magnets repelling each other).  That scenario would require the storms get close enough to each other for the Fujiwhara Effect to take hold — and at that point, all bets are off.  It’s unlikely that either storm will directly affect our weather here in the Midstate.

The National Hurricane Center’s next update is at 10pm, and we’ll have some more model data to look at between now and then — I’ll have that update for you on News 4 after the Falcons/Packers game…

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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1 Response to September 17: A Warm and Unsettled Week Ahead

  1. Fred says:

    From Oc-tember to Aug-tember in a matter of a few days. 7:15pm and yet it does feel like an August evening. Gotta love Nashville weather!

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