A good chance of showers and thunderstorms heads our way on Tuesday, but widespread severe weather is not expected at this point. The BAMS model pictured here seems to have a pretty handle on the pattern throughout the day:
Of course, we’re still monitoring Hurricane Irma in the Atlantic Ocean:
The National Hurricane Center’s forecast path skirts Irma just north of the islands in the Caribbean over the next five days — but those islands are still within the “cone of uncertainty”:
After that, the American and European forecast models are in pretty good agreement for a couple of days — that’s REALLY bad news for the Bahamas, which will take a beating in this scenario:
After that point though, the models diverge — the European (the superior model) keeps Irma offshore entirely, although the path is still way too close for comfort along the East Coast. The American forecast model pushes Irma into the Carolinas early next week:
There will be more changes to the forecast in the week ahead, so it’s far too early for folks along the East Coast to do anything more than just keep an eye on the weather. But if you have family or friends who live anywhere from Baltimore to Miami, encourage them to stay weather aware!