September 2: Great Weather This Weekend, Looking Back at August


The last of Harvey’s influence has moved out of the Midstate, and the rest of the Labor Day weekend is looking fantastic! Temperatures tonight will fall steadily, so you might want to bring a sweatshirt to Live On The Green:

We’ll drop to the mid to upper 50s by Sunday morning under mostly clear skies, with some patchy dense fog developing overnight:

We’ll warm up to the mid 80s Sunday afternoon:

There’s a VERY slight shower chance along the TN/KY state line tomorrow, but even there it’s just a 10% chance.

Slightly warmer for Labor Day, with highs in the upper 80s, then our next chance of rain heads in on Tuesday.  Once those showers exit by midday Wednesday, the rest of the week is looking dry and pleasant!

We’re still keeping an eye on Hurricane Irma in the tropical Atlantic:

While it doesn’t look like the storm will have a direct influence on our weather here in the Midstate, folks along the East Coast are going to have to sweat this one out for a few days.  The National Hurricane Center’s forecast path takes Irma to the west, with a slight northward bend early next week — that would keep the center of the storm to the north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola:

Beyond that, the two main long-range forecast models are (of course) at odds regarding whether Irma will make landfall in the United States.  The American GFS model crashes it into Chesapeake Bay next Sunday evening, while the European model keeps Irma offshore (barely) throughout it’s entire lifespan:

That’s too close for comfort for the East Coast — if you have friends or family there, make sure they’re staying weather-aware for the next week to ten days.  The next update from the National Hurricane center is scheduled for 10pm, so I’ll show that to you on our 10:00 newscast…



Happy “meteorological autumn”!  Fall officially arrives the afternoon of September 22, but the weather community rounds things off to September 1 because it just makes more sense.  Now that the month of August and “meteorological summer” are in the books, we can look back at some of the data.

We just finished off the 3rd-wettest August on record in Nashville, with 8.32″ inches of rain — that makes it the rainiest August since 1923!  The June-July-August rainfall total of 16.58″ makes it the 10th-wettest summer on record (precipitation records go back to 1871).  Nashville’s two tornadoes on Thursday night (both just before midnight) are the first ever tornadoes in Davidson county during the month of August.  Fortunately, those two tornadoes and the third near Mt. Pleasant in Maury county didn’t result in any injuries or fatalities — July and August are the only two months in Middle Tennessee in which no tornado-related fatalities have ever been reported.

The average temperature in August was 77.7° — exactly 1°F below normal.  As loyal reader, commenter, and fellow weather nerd Fred notes: “The epic Hot streak, finally, came to an end, as Nashville had its first month of below average temperature since January 2016. At 77.7 degrees, exactly 1 degree below the norm, it was the 56th coolest August and, also, the month with the greatest temperature deficit since August 2015, which averaged 77.2.”

The 18 months of above-average temperatures from February 2016 through July 2017 are by far the longest such streak on record, six months ahead of the next-longest streak.

Despite August’s below-average temperatures, summer 2017 was still slightly above-average as a whole, with an average temperature of 78.4° — that’s just 0.5° above normal, so it’s safe to say that this summer was “normally hot.”

Finally, the average temperature so far this year, once you add up January through August, is 65.3°.  So despite our below-average August and near-average summer, we’re still off to the second-warmest start of any year on record in Nashville — just 0.1° behind the pace set through the first eight months of 2012.

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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1 Response to September 2: Great Weather This Weekend, Looking Back at August

  1. jay says:

    my garden faired a lot better then last summer. cucumbers did the best.

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