Not much time for an in-depth Harvey update, so here’s a very quick look at the latest.\
Heavy rain will continue much of the night. A little pocket of dry air will try to move up from the southwest, which will herald the end of the torrential rainfall. However, as the center of Harvey’s circulation moves through the Midstate, it will drag an area of light-to-moderate rainfall through much of the Midstate — off-and-on showers will continue most of the day on Friday. The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows that nicely, from now (9pm) through 1pm Friday:
Total rainfall amounts will vary from neighborhood to neighborhood. The latest estimate from the RPM model shows a widespread area highlighted in yellow, indicating at least 4″ of total rainfall. Within that area, some locations could pick up close to 9″:
The severe weather threat — specifically, the threat of isolated tornadoes — isn’t over yet, either. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a “Slight Risk” of severe weather for southeastern Middle Tennessee:
SPC has not issued any watches for the Midstate, despite the fact that we’ve had over a half-dozen warnings, several sightings of funnel clouds, and at least one confirmed tornado touchdown.
Once the last of the showers wind down Saturday, the rest of the Labor Day weekend is looking really nice! Another shot of rain will head our way Tuesday into early Wednesday, but at least we’ll have a chance to dry out between now and then:
The way-out-there part of the extended forecast is REALLY hazy right now — there’s the possibility that Tuesday’s rainmaker could get “stuck” Wednesday and Thursday…not in a flooding way, just in a “gloomy and rainy” way. Everything depends on yet another tropical system…Irma, which is currently way out in the Atlantic Ocean:
One of the forecast models (the better one) brings Irma towards Florida by late next week and stalls out our weather pattern as a consequence, but another model keeps Irma off the East Coast entirely and lets us dry out. Let’s hope for the latter.