August 16: Relief From The Humidity, Daily Links

WEATHER

The word of the day: HUMID.  It felt generally gross outside, with dew points running in the low to mid 70s throughout the day…that’s “bad” territory on the Muggy Meter:

Abundant humidity will remain in place through Thursday night, but at least a little bit of relief is in store for the weekend.

We’ve seen some showers and storms popping up in the heat and humidity, but those will fizzle out after sunset — still, an isolated sprinkle or two is still possible overnight into early Thursday morning.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows that trend:

Temperatures tonight will only drop to the mid 70s:

High temperatures Thursday will reach the upper 80s and low 90s…

…with the heat index close to 100° again:

A better chance of scattered storms will move in Thursday afternoon and evening.  I’m not thrilled with any one forecast model’s depiction of those storms, but I think the BAMS model here has a decent handle on things:

A few of the storms could be stronger, especially to the northwest of Nashville — that’s where the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Marginal Risk” of severe weather:

That’s level 1 out of 5, so don’t panic — we’ll keep an eye on any storms that develop, just in case they get a little frisky.  There could be some storms in the area for the start of Live On The Green…and it will still be warm and sticky:

Don’t let that stop you from joining the fun at Public Square Park — just check in with Lisa Spencer on our evening newscasts tomorrow (or download the 4WARN app and check the radar) before you head out.

That system will usher in a slightly drier air mass for the weekend, but it will still be hot — highs will top out around or above 90° Friday, Saturday and Sunday, with just an isolated storm chance each day:

The heat will stick around early next week, with highs remaining in the low 90s.

Looking ahead to Eclipse Day on Monday, things are still looking…adequate.  The American GFS model is showing a decent amount of cloud cover during totality:

The more-reliable European model is a little more optimistic:

Those are the only two major forecast models in range of Monday at this point — we’ll have a lot more data to look at over the weekend.  Some spotty showers and storms are still possible as well…not a washout, but still at least a slight chance of rain:

Fingers crossed for good visibility!  I’ll have an update on News 4 at 10pm…

 

LINKS

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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1 Response to August 16: Relief From The Humidity, Daily Links

  1. Fred says:

    This has been an exceptionally cloudy August, so far, the accumulated sky cover value (sunrise-to-sunset) for the first 16 days at 109, which translates to an average 68% of the sky being covered by clouds. Milder temperatures during daytime (average high is 2 degrees lower than normal, month to date) are due mostly to these clouds, yet, on the other hand, they’ve kept our night-time lows at the expected levels. Consequently, while a week ago it looked almost certain that we’d witness the first significantly cooler than average month in two years, right now it’s not so obvious. But, clearly, the biggest question, by far, is how will the clouds affect the viewing of the historical event just a few days from now. The forecast looks generally favorable, but one could significantly improve the odds, should you decide to witness the eclipse elsewhere. Three locations to consider would be Clarksville, White House, and Crossville. They’re all reasonably close, the totality would last 2:18m, 2:39m and 2:33, respectively vs 1:56 for Nashville. Clarksville would be the top on my list, as the sky conditions there are the clearest of the bunch (not sure about White House, as I didn’t find the data for that place). Clarksville’s month-to-date sky cover is 51 and Crossville’s 73, and for them, this August, too, has been much more cloudy than what they typically experience. It’s not uncommon for the both cities to go through a month without recording a single cloudy day, which is an exceedingly rare occurrence for Nashville. This is something to keep in mind as Monday approaches.

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