August 15: More Of The Same, Daily Links


Not much change to the weather over the next 48 hours — scattered storms will develop each day, with hazy, hot and humid conditions in between.  The showers we saw today have largely fizzled, but a few more could develop overnight, as shown by the HRRR model’s radar simulation:

Temperatures will only drop to the low to mid 70s by Wednesday morning:

More scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the day Wednesday:

Temperatures will be slightly warmer in between the showers and thunderstorms, with highs around 90°:

The same pattern will repeat itself on Thursday, although I think Thursday’s storm chances will be fractionally higher.

The forecast still looks mostly dry Friday, Saturday and Sunday, as the main storm track will be pushed just a little ways down to our south:

High temperatures will still top out around 90° but with slightly lower humidity over the weekend:

Looking ahead to Eclipse Day, I’ll start by stating the obvious — it’s still six days away!  Plenty of time for the forecast to change, either for the better (hopefully!) or the worse (please, no!).  Here’s the good news: the latest run of the American GFS model is showing minimal cloud cover at eclipse time, around 1pm on Monday:

Here’s the bad news: I trust the GFS model about as far as I can throw the supercomputer that runs it.  The more-reliable European model still shows a chance of spotty showers and storms on Monday, and I’ve shaded the forecast in that direction:

I’ll say it again — it’s still pretty far down the line at this point!  I’ll get some more data to look at between now and our 10pm newscast, so I’ll have an updated forecast then.



About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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