July 30: Nice Weather Continues

WEATHER

Today was absolutely beautiful, and the beginning of the new work week isn’t looking too bad either!  Temperatures tonight will drop down to the low 60s:

Windows open weather again!

While Monday will be slightly warmer, we’ll still end up a degree or two below average.  High temperatures will reach the upper 80s…

…but the humidity will still be quite tolerable:

The humidity will begin to creep back in on Tuesday, with high temperatures around 90° Tuesday, Wednesday, and again on Thursday.  Spotty storms will be possible Wednesday and Thursday, then the best chance of storms all week will head our way on Friday.  At this point, it looks like those storms will be out of the way in time for next weekend — the first weekend of August is actually looking quite pleasant!

I’ll have an update on the late-week storm chances on News 4 at 10pm this evening, so tune in then…

 

LOOKING BACK AT JULY

Assuming that my forecast for tomorrow is accurate (insert your own jokes here), we’ll end up with an average temperature of 81.3° for July 2017, which is 1.9° above-average.  That will be tied for the 27th warmest July on record (records date back to 1874).  All things considered, that’s not too bad considering how hot it was in mid to late July — the rain-cooled Fourth of July week and this weekend’s pleasant weather helped us out a little.

Out of the last 26 months, 24 recorded above-average temperatures in Nashville.  In those 2-plus years, only January 2016 (slightly below-normal), May 2016 and June 2017 (both barely above-normal) were essentially “average.”  August 2015 was the last unequivocally “cool” month.  (Many thanks as always to loyal reader, commenter, and fellow weather-nerd Fred for crunching some of the numbers!)

Looking at the first seven months of the year as a whole, 2017 is off to the second-warmest start on record, behind 2012’s scorching pace by only 0.1°, and still more than a full degree ahead of the third-warmest year.  It doesn’t sound like much when we’re talking about fractions of degrees, but it’s quite significant when you’re talking about 212 days of data over 143 years.

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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4 Responses to July 30: Nice Weather Continues

  1. weather says:

    Well i think comparing todays weather to 143 years ago is inaccurate, and the averages are not
    realistic.

    • paulheggen33 says:

      The averages are from the last 30 years. They’re recompiled every ten years. So, not only are they realistic, they’re based on nothing more than simple arithmetic.

      Records go back to the 1870s. That’s where we compare record highs, lows, rainfall, snowfall, etc. A few record are still on the books from that long ago, but not many.

  2. weather says:

    thanks for your reply learned something

  3. Fred says:

    Now that July 2017 is over, the final stats, according to the local NWS office, are as follows: avg. temperature 81.4, which is exactly 2 degrees above the long-term mean and good enough for the unshared 27th spot, which means that we just had 18th consecutive warmer-than-average month. There were 23 days of 90 degrees or above (one shy of July 2016) and 8 days when the temperatures reached or exceeded 95-degree mark (there were 10 such days in the previous July), both numbers well above the norm (16 and 5, respectively). The maximum temperature for the month was 98, measured on 21st and 22nd, the highest for July since 2012, which had 2 days top out at 105. The hottest day in 5 years occurred on the 22nd, which yielded the daily mean of 87. Even though, it may still be early to make the definitive statement, chances are that this year’s stretch of hottest weather had already happened during that heat-wave. Precipitation for the month was 4.23″, showing a slight excess, but was distributed very unequally, 97% of it fell on the first 15 days and there were only 2 days of measurable precipitation past the 15th. Since 2000, July has become the wettest of summer months, in fact, over the last 10 years, only 2 Julys produced a rainfall deficit: 2011, which was only slightly subnormal, and 2014. Drier Julys were common for most of the 00’s, the driest of which was in 2007, measuring only 1.47″, the least since 1986. To wrap-up this summary, it may be added that we had the clearest July (monthly sky cover value, sunrise-to-sunset, was 156, just a shade over 50%) since 2011 (140, the clearest of, at least, the last 20 years). Neither of those, however, is anywhere near the record of 107, observed in 1980. Regardless, it was still a nice contrast to last year’s July, the cloudiest this century (196).

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