July 13: Slightly Better Storm Chance, Daily Links


Hazy, hot and humid weather again today — high temperatures will reach the low 90s, and heat indices (the “feels-like” temperatures) will top out in the upper 90s:

Today brings us a slightly better chance of storms from midday through early evening…the HRRR model’s radar simulation shows the best chance to the east of I-65:

If you’re lucky enough to get some rain, you’ll get to enjoy some rain-cooled air…but unfortunately, the humidity won’t change.

The best chance of thunderstorms overall will hold off until tomorrow.  Turning to Futurecast for the radar simulation, it shows more-widespread activity already by noon, with the best chance slowly dropping southward through the afternoon and evening:

Notice the storms forming a broken line as they move southward — that indicates a little more organization, and that indicates a chance that a few storms tomorrow could be strong.  Damaging winds will be the main threat, and the Storm Prediction Center has accordingly outlined a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe weather:

That means we expect numerous storms, a few of which could briefly become severe.

Our rain chances will diminish over the weekend, but I can’t take them out of the forecast entirely — some of the medium-range forecast models (the Canadian and American GFS models, specifically) have us completely rain-free on Sunday!  But the generally-more-accurate European model keeps at least a chance of showers hanging around.  So as you’re trying to make weekend plans, here’s my advice: don’t cancel anything!  The best chance of rain on Saturday will be south of I-40, then we’ll see just a spotty storm chance Sunday afternoon.  Be flexible with outdoor plans, especially the farther south you go Saturday:

High temperatures will top out near 90° from Friday through early next week.



About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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