July 5: More Storms Ahead

The easy part of the forecast remains…well, easy: very warm, very muggy, with thunderstorms possible at any point today and tomorrow.

But we try to give you more details than that, so you can plan around the stormiest parts of the day — and that’s where the forecast gets frustrating:

So while we’ll try to give you those hour-by-hour details, a healthy amount of skepticism is called for in this weather pattern.  Be Scully, not Mulder:

The forecast models have been nothing short of dreadful when it comes to simulating the weather this week.  I sorted through about a dozen this morning, trying to find one that had a decent handle on what’s on the radar right now.  (If a model can’t figure out current weather, it probably can’t figure out future weather.)  I found one, the BAMS model, that looks least-wrong to me — and how’s that for a ringing endorsement?  It shows the best chance of showers and storms in roughly the northwestern half of the Midstate this morning, then more widespread storms spreading in from the west this afternoon:

Perfect?  Goodness, no.  But hopefully it gives you an idea of the overall pattern.  Some of the afternoon storms could be strong to severe, with damaging winds and heavy rainfall the main threats.  The Storm Prediction Center has included the entire Midstate in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) for severe weather — that means we expect numerous storms, a few of which could produce damaging wind gusts:

I’m more concerned about the potential of localized flooding, as heavy rain falls onto already-saturated ground.  The National Weather Service’s data shows that much of the Midstate has picked up over an inch of rain in the last week, with some spots (shaded in yellow and orange) in the 2″-3″ range:

In between storms, it will be very warm (or even hot), and very muggy — highs will top out in the upper 80s to near 90°.

More showers and storms in the forecast Thursday, with highs only in the mid 80s.  Once again, a Marginal Risk of severe weather includes much of the Midstate:

A one-day break from the rain arrives on Friday, which means it will be hot — highs will reach the low 90s.  Yet another chance of scattered storms arrives on Saturday, then we finally settle into a more-typical early July weather pattern next week:

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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