July 4: Unsettled Independence Day

Happy Independence Day!

More scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in the forecast today, but our severe weather potential will remain limited, and the rain chances should gradually diminish throughout the day.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation (the model that ended up being the least-bad yesterday) off-and-on showers, but a gradual trend toward drier weather:

It’s another day to be flexible with your outdoor plans — have an indoor alternative in mind, but it won’t rain everywhere all the time today.  High temperatures will reach the mid 80s this afternoon, in between showers:

We’re looking mostly dry in time for fireworks displays this evening, but I can’t completely rule rain out at any time in this type of weather pattern.  It will still be warm and sticky, and there will still be plenty of cloud cover overhead:

More thunderstorms in the forecast Wednesday, developing in a couple of waves as another ripple in the atmosphere drops into our neighborhood:

Some of storms could be strong — but it’s just a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe weather being outlined by the Storm Prediction Center at this point:

That means we’re expecting numerous storms, just a few of which could approach severe limits.

The rain will linger into Thursday, then we’ll catch a one-day break from the best storm chances on Friday…but that means it will be hot:

Yet another atmospheric ripple will spark more showers and storms late Friday night and into Saturday.  After that, the more-accurate long-range forecast models are pointing toward a longer stretch of mostly-dry weather next week.  But that’s a long way off, so we’ll wait and see…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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