The forecast remains unsettled for the next seven days, as a series of disturbances will spark more showers and thunderstorms across the Midstate, with hot and muggy conditions in between the storms. As I wrote last week, this kind of weather pattern makes it hard to pin down the details, but let’s give it a shot…
Scattered storms will dot the radar throughout the afternoon — typical summertime storms, without much organization. High temperatures will top out in the upper 80s to around 90° in between storms this afternoon:
The best chance of rain today will move in this evening…the HRRR model’s radar simulation shows the spotty afternoon activity, and the heftier storms moving in from the west around and just after sunset:
The timing is very borderline for fireworks displays this evening — obviously we’ll hope for the best! The evening storms will bring an outside chance of severe weather — the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe storms along and west of I-65:
I’m less concerned about the damaging wind threat than I am about the potential of heavy rain falling onto already-saturated ground.
The rain will linger into Tuesday, with off-and-on showers and a few storms possible much of the day. The RPM model has a reasonably good handle on that:
Remember, the pattern is the most important thing on the simulation — I wouldn’t put much stock in the specific timing or placement more than 24 hours in advance. At this point I’m cautiously optimistic that we should be mostly dry in time for Fourth of July fireworks displays:
This type of weather pattern is maddeningly tricky though, so stay plugged into the forecast for updates.
The bottom line today and tomorrow is pretty simple: it will be warm/hot, it will be very muggy, and a storm could visit your neighborhood at pretty much any time. Be flexible with outdoor plans — have an indoor alternative or be otherwise ready to adjust. As our friends at @NashSevereWX like to say, “embrace the uncertainty.”
Later this week, the best chances of rain will arrive on Thursday and again on Saturday. The drier days will be the hotter days, with highs around 90° Wednesday and Friday, before a slightly cooler and less-muggy air mass tries to move in on Sunday:
LOOKING BACK AT JUNE
June was the most “normal” month in over a year, since May 2016 — the average temperature of 76.2° was only 0.5° warmer than normal, the least-hot June since 2006. Our last below-normal June was 14 years ago, in 2003. The number of 90° days was a rather low 8, the fewest since June 2004 (only 3 such days that year).
The end of June also marks the halfway point of the year overall, and 2017 is off to THE warmest start on record, by 0.3° — doesn’t sound like much, but it’s quite significant when you’re talking about 181 days of data over 143 years.
Out of the last 25 months, 23 recorded above-average temperatures in Nashville. In those 2 years, only January 2016 (slightly below-normal), May 2016 and June 2017 (both barely above-normal) were essentially “average.” August 2015 was the last unequivocally “cool” month. (Many thanks to loyal reader, commenter, and fellow weather-nerd Fred for crunching some of the numbers!)