June 30: Looking Ahead To July, Daily Links


We’ve reached the end of June, which means we’re at the time of year when the general forecast is pretty simple: hot and muggy, chance of storms.

But when you have outdoor plans, especially over a holiday weekend, you want to know exactly when the storms will develop, and where they’re most likely.  And that’s where things get…complicated.

So while I’m going to give you my best estimate as to the details of the forecast, keep in mind that the weather is mercurial this time of year.

A warm and muggy morning will give way to a hot and muggy afternoon, with high temperatures near 90° once the sun breaks through the clouds:

The best chance of showers this morning is staying to the southeast of Nashville.  Everyone will see a chance of spotty storms this afternoon, as shown by the HRRR model’s radar simulation:

That loop also shows stronger storms approaching from the west late this afternoon, but fizzling as they move in.  That’s officially the point at which the forecast becomes:

Because either those storms will hold together more than the models think, OR more storms will make a run toward us late this evening and overnight.  Either way, a few of those storms could prompt severe thunderstorm warnings, but in general they’ll be weakening after dark.  The Storm Prediction Center has kept the “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) for severe weather to our northwest, with a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) closer to home:

Tomorrow is looking like the wettest day of the holiday weekend, but that doesn’t mean it will be a washout, either.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at any point throughout the day Saturday, so have an indoor alternative for outdoor plans.  The upper-level flow in the atmosphere will be out of the northwest…there’s a cliche in the meteorological community: “Northwest flow, weatherman’s woe.”  The short-range forecast models don’t handle this pattern well AT ALL — so while I think our best chance of storms will be in the afternoon and early evening, my confidence in that statement is at this level:

A few storms could also be strong tomorrow — once again, we’re under a Marginal Risk:

We’ll mostly dry out Sunday and Monday, then scattered storms return for the Fourth of July, mainly in the afternoon.  I’m cautiously optimistic that the weather will be mostly favorable for fireworks displays on Independence Day — but it’s several days off, so that forecast could go in either direction:

After the holiday weekend, our weather will remain unsettled — close to a 50-50 chance Wednesday and Thursday, but still hot and muggy in between the storms:



About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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1 Response to June 30: Looking Ahead To July, Daily Links

  1. Fred says:

    One streak snapped, two others continue.
    Alright, another month is concluded and, predictably, it was a warm one. Our above-normal streak now stands at 17 and counting, and only 1 month of the last 22 was cooler than average, January 2016. Regardless, June was the most normal month since May 2016, (I said the same thing about last May, but it’s even more appropriate here) at 76.2 being only 0.5 degrees warmer than average, the least hot June since 2006. The number of 90-degree days was a rather low 8, the fewest since June 2004, that had only 3 such days. That means that our record streak of ten hot Junes is over, however, our last subnormal June was 14 years ago, also a record. 4.03″ of monthly precipitation was slightly below average. Even though, June is considered to be the wettest of summer months, the dynamic since 2000 indicates that it has actually become the driest of the three. The rainiest June was in 1998, when nearly a foot of precipitation fell. In 19 years since then, only one June was truly wet, that of 2003. We’ve expectedly had the warmest January-June period (60.6), 2.6 degrees warmer than last year, a very serious advantage. Despite this, whether 2017 beats out last year for the hottest ever is far from a foregone conclusion, as it would be a tall order to equal last summer, and even more so, last fall.

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