June 22: Wet and Stormy 48 Hours Ahead

Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall overnight in southwestern Louisiana — the storm will move north and farther inland today, becoming “extra-tropical” (meaning it will lose its tropical characteristics) tonight and tomorrow.  The center of what’s left of Cindy will track directly over the Midstate late Friday:

The first wave of Cindy’s rain moved into the Midstate this morning.  Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are likely through midday, then we’ll see more of a scattered pattern to the storms this afternoon and evening.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows the action between now and late evening:

Temperatures will reach up to around 80° in between the storms this afternoon:That’s warm enough for some of the late-day storms to become marginally severe, but the greatest severe threat today will be closer to the center of Tropical Storm Cindy, off to our south and southwest:

We’ll see a little break from the rain tonight and early Friday — scattered showers will still be possible, but they shouldn’t be a major concern.  Another round of heavier rain and thunderstorms will head our way tomorrow afternoon and evening, as the remnants of Cindy move this way.  Our RPM model’s radar simulation is…um, “colorful”:

The main feature of those storm will be torrential rainfall, which is likely to cause localized flooding problems, and could even cause widespread issues.  Adding up the rainfall over the next 48 hours, the same forecast model shows most of the Midstate picking up at least 4″, with some places approaching 6″ (the yellow areas):

About 1″-2″ of that will fall today, which means we’re talking about 3″-5″ of rain falling onto already-wet ground on Friday.  The National Weather Service office in Nashville hasn’t issued a Flash Flood Watch just yet, but I expect them to do so later today.  The Weather Prediction Center (a separate NOAA agency) shows a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) of excessive rain over much of the Midstate, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) elsewhere:

If you live in a spot that tends to have flooding issues (or if your access roads tend to flood), you could have some problems by tomorrow evening.  In addition to the flooding potential, some of the afternoon/evening storms could be severe, with the threat of damaging winds and even isolated tornadoes (typical of a weakening tropical cyclone).  The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms for about half of the Midstate:

I really think they’ll need to expand that risk out to the Tennessee River as well.  The SPC’s own forecast model shows a 50-70% chance of storms with severe characteristics over most of the Midstate and back into West Tennessee late Friday afternoon:

The individual severe-weather statistics aren’t off the charts, but they’re high enough to get my attention.

Bottom line: stay weather-aware today and tomorrow, especially Friday afternoon and evening.  I’ll be posting updates on social media (links at the bottom of this post), and of course we’ll have you covered during our newscasts.

The rain will move through by early Saturday, leaving us with a mostly dry and mild weekend.  I’m leaving a 20% chance of rain in the forecast Saturday through Tuesday, but even that is only out of an abundance of caution.  Little ripples in the atmospheric flow could produce a shower or two, but generally we’re looking at dry weather from Saturday through most of next week:

Cooler-than-normal temperatures will prevail, along with lower-than-normal humidity!  Basically, we just need to get through the next 36-48 hours, then we can relax.

No nerd-links today or tomorrow, since Cindy’s impact on our weather has my full attention…

Social media links

Twitter: @WSMVweather, @PaulHeggenWSMV, @WSMVLisaSpencer, @WSMVDanThomas, @daphne_deloren, @NWSNashville

Facebook: 4WARN Weather, Paul Heggen WSMV, Lisa Spencer, Dan Thomas WSMV, Daphne DeLoren, NWS Nashville

Instagram: PaulHeggenWSMV

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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