June 19: Drier Weather, Daily Links


Scattered showers still dotting the radar this morning, mainly south of I-40, but rainfall amounts are very light.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows the shower activity shutting down by this afternoon:

We’ll see decreasing clouds overhead the rest of the day, with high temperatures this afternoon reaching the mid 80s:

Pleasant weather in store Tuesday and most of Wednesday, with lower humidity and high temperatures close to normal, in the upper 80s to around 90 each day:

As I’m sure you immediately noticed on the 7-day forecast, the next good chance of rain heads our way by late this week, and the weekend is looking unsettled at this point.  I’m not going with 100% rain chances simply because those days are in the back half of the outlook, and there’s a lot that can happen between now and then.  That said, it’s looking generally wet, thanks to the influence of a tropical system that’s just getting its act together in the western Caribbean right now.  The National Hurricane Center estimates an 80% chance that this blob of clouds becomes an “organized system” (at least a tropical depression) within the next 48 hours:

The various forecast models on the spaghetti plot show general agreement that the tropical system will work its way into the Gulf of Mexico before moving onshore late this week:

It’s unlikely to become a hurricane, but it could reach tropical storm strength before making landfall.  Even if it remains a tropical depression (the lowest classification), it will still bring abundant moisture wherever it goes.  A hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate this system later today — that should give the forecast models a nice amount of data to chew on, which will hopefully help us narrow down the path and strength of the developing system later this week.  Bottom line: I wouldn’t cancel any outdoor plans for the weekend just yet, but start thinking about an indoor alternative in case you have to adjust.



About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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