WEATHER
Scattered showers still dotting the radar this morning, mainly south of I-40, but rainfall amounts are very light. The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows the shower activity shutting down by this afternoon:
We’ll see decreasing clouds overhead the rest of the day, with high temperatures this afternoon reaching the mid 80s:
Pleasant weather in store Tuesday and most of Wednesday, with lower humidity and high temperatures close to normal, in the upper 80s to around 90 each day:
As I’m sure you immediately noticed on the 7-day forecast, the next good chance of rain heads our way by late this week, and the weekend is looking unsettled at this point. I’m not going with 100% rain chances simply because those days are in the back half of the outlook, and there’s a lot that can happen between now and then. That said, it’s looking generally wet, thanks to the influence of a tropical system that’s just getting its act together in the western Caribbean right now. The National Hurricane Center estimates an 80% chance that this blob of clouds becomes an “organized system” (at least a tropical depression) within the next 48 hours:
The various forecast models on the spaghetti plot show general agreement that the tropical system will work its way into the Gulf of Mexico before moving onshore late this week:
It’s unlikely to become a hurricane, but it could reach tropical storm strength before making landfall. Even if it remains a tropical depression (the lowest classification), it will still bring abundant moisture wherever it goes. A hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate this system later today — that should give the forecast models a nice amount of data to chew on, which will hopefully help us narrow down the path and strength of the developing system later this week. Bottom line: I wouldn’t cancel any outdoor plans for the weekend just yet, but start thinking about an indoor alternative in case you have to adjust.
LINKS
- 4 things to know about what’s happening in the tropics right now.
- The southwestern U.S. is going to have to deal with exceptional heat this week.
- A small increase in average temperature leads to a big increase in extreme heat.
- Wildfires used to be rare in the Great Plains, but they’ve more than tripled in 30 years.
- This does not bode well for Antarctica: a Texas-size chunk of ice partially melted last year.
- Rain and snow may help “stress out” earthquake faults.
- Researcher used a recent eclipse to catch a view of part of the Sun’s atmosphere escaping off into space.
- This is pretty cool — you can type your address into this eclipse simulator to see what things will look like at various points during August 21’s total eclipse.
- Elon Musk has published his plans for colonizing Mars.
- How does Earth move through space? Now we know (we think), on every scale.
- Physics proves that no one can safely text and drive simultaneously.
- The U.S. is no longer the scientific leader it once was.
- While an anti-science mentality reigns within the U.S. government, China is using quantum physics to lay the groundwork for 21st-century dominance.
- How to combat fake news? Teach kids media literacy! Plenty of adults could use this training as well…
- Is breakfast really the most important meal of the day?
- Some deep statistical analysis to determine the worst board game ever invented.
