Just a limited storm chance on Saturday, then storms will develop well to our northwest and head our way late Saturday night. That yields a much better chance of thunderstorms on Sunday, but here’s where the forecast gets tricky — “northwest flow” in the atmosphere is notoriously unpredictable (think back to how much trouble we had trying to pin down the timing of Thursday’s storms). That’s why I can’t say with any great certainty when the best chance of storms will arrive on Sunday. Some forecast models move widespread thunderstorms into the Midstate before sunrise Sunday morning, other hold everything off until Sunday evening. I’m leaning toward what’s depicted by the BAMS model here — scattered storms diminishing in the morning, with heftier storms in the afternoon:
Some of the storms on Sunday could be strong to severe, with damaging straight-line winds the main threat. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms on Sunday, mainly to the east and northeast of Nashville:
That will probably shift around a bit over the next couple of days — the SPC’s ensemble model shows the best chance along and north of I-40:
And the “analog” forecast (which compares this pattern to similar historical patterns) shows a good chance of at least one severe report in most of the Midstate:
Here’s the bottom line: plan on staying weather-aware Sunday, and be ready to adjust any outdoor Father’s Day plans. Of course, Dan and Daphne will be here over the weekend to keep you updated as the forecast evolves.
We’ll see lingering showers and non-severe storms on Monday, followed by a break from the humidity and the worst of the heat on Tuesday:
That break from the humidity won’t last long — storm chances return to the forecast by the end of the week.
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