June 15: Unsettled Today, Daily Links


A complicated forecast today — we have showers and thunderstorms to our northwest trying to make a run towards the Midstate this morning, and we also have some thundershowers that have developed directly overhead.  Several forecast questions:
– Will the storms to our northwest fizzle out before they move in?
– Will the showers overhead diminish, or spread out?
– Is this morning’s shower and storm activity sufficient to stabilize the atmosphere?
– How much storm activity will re-develop later today?

Allow me to be brutally honest — while I’ll give you my best estimate throughout the rest of this blog post, the real answer to ALL of those questions is:

Here’s what I DO know: it will be hot and muggy, with scattered thunderstorms possible at any point during the day.  A few storms could become severe…the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms along and south of I-40:

Damaging straight-line winds (60+mph) will be the primary concern — there’s a LOT of “storm fuel” (thermodynamic energy) in the atmosphere, but very little wind shear to organize or rotate the storms.

In terms of the specific timing of the storms, see Steve Martin above.  I think our storm chances will diminish by this evening, but my confidence is that statement is tenuous at best.  The various forecast models have been a collective dumpster fire, so this is purely a “watch the radar” kind of day.

In between the showers and storms, it will be hot and muggy again, with high temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s:

With the humidity, the heat index will reach the low to mid 90s:

Still hot and muggy through the weekend — highs will reach the mid 90s on Saturday, with just a slight chance of an afternoon storm:

A hot and muggy Father’s Day as well, with highs in the low 90s — the best chance of storms should hold off until Sunday evening and overnight:

That good chance of storms Sunday night will scrub some mugginess out of the atmosphere, so we’ll get a break from the worst of the heat and humidity early next week:




About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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