A complicated forecast today — we have showers and thunderstorms to our northwest trying to make a run towards the Midstate this morning, and we also have some thundershowers that have developed directly overhead. Several forecast questions:
– Will the storms to our northwest fizzle out before they move in?
– Will the showers overhead diminish, or spread out?
– Is this morning’s shower and storm activity sufficient to stabilize the atmosphere?
– How much storm activity will re-develop later today?
Here’s what I DO know: it will be hot and muggy, with scattered thunderstorms possible at any point during the day. A few storms could become severe…the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms along and south of I-40:
Damaging straight-line winds (60+mph) will be the primary concern — there’s a LOT of “storm fuel” (thermodynamic energy) in the atmosphere, but very little wind shear to organize or rotate the storms.
In terms of the specific timing of the storms, see Steve Martin above. I think our storm chances will diminish by this evening, but my confidence is that statement is tenuous at best. The various forecast models have been a collective dumpster fire, so this is purely a “watch the radar” kind of day.
Still hot and muggy through the weekend — highs will reach the mid 90s on Saturday, with just a slight chance of an afternoon storm:
A hot and muggy Father’s Day as well, with highs in the low 90s — the best chance of storms should hold off until Sunday evening and overnight:
- Think it’s been hot here? Phoenix could hit 120+ early next week — rivaling the hottest temperature ever recorded.
- More than 700 kids have died in hot cars since 1998. 12 this year so far. Members of Congress want to do something.
- Heat is sneaky. It worsens pre-existing conditions more often than it kills directly, making it difficult to track.
- Where in the United States is nature most likely to kill you?
- A Republican congressman from Florida is laying the groundwork for federal bipartisan climate action down the road.
- Ice formation in some clouds produces atmospheric “lollipops.”
- Carbon dioxide peaked at 409.65 ppm (parts per million) in May. It’s never been higher in human history.
- The future of astronomy: thousands of radio telescopes that can see beyond the stars.
- When grant money becomes scarce, scientists are turning to crowd-sourcing to fund their research. (Pretty much a textbook definition of “slippery slope.”)
- Doctors just separated twin girls joined at the head in one of the world’s rarest surgeries.
- America’s standard, bland beer is slowly being replaced by the weird stuff.
- IMPORTANT SCIENCE ALERT: How much beer does Futurama’s Bender need to survive a aay?