High temperatures will reach the low 90s:
The heat index will climb to the mid to upper 90s:
We’ll see the same 20-30% storm chance that we’ve seen the past few days:
The HRRR model’s radar simulation did pretty well yesterday, and it’s showing the usual summertime “radar freckles” this afternoon and early evening, mainly east of Nashville:
A much better chance of thunderstorms is on the way tomorrow — one batch of storms will move in before sunrise, as shown by the BAMS model here:
After the morning activity diminishes, temperatures will warm up to the upper 80s:
That will re-charge the atmosphere for the potential of more storms Thursday afternoon and evening. The number and intensity of storms will depend on how much we warm up after the morning storms, so feel free to look at this afternoon radar simulation with a healthy level of skepticism:
Some of the storms on Thursday could be strong to severe — the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms tomorrow, with damaging winds the primary threat:
I don’t think the threat will climb any higher than that Slight Risk…while there’s plenty of “juice” in the atmosphere to fuel strong storms, there just isn’t enough wind energy this time of year to yield a higher potential of widespread severe weather. Plan on staying weather-aware, and have an indoor alternative for any outdoor plans.
Back to a 30% storm chance Friday and Saturday, with high temperatures right back up to the low 90s, with plenty of humidity as well. Father’s Day is the tricky part of the extended forecast…right now I think the best chance of thunderstorms will head our way Sunday evening and overnight, which means that most of the day would still be hot and steamy:
Lower humidity levels should settle in for at least a couple of days next week, with a break from the worst of the heat as well.
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