May 19: Unsettled Weekend


The big story of the morning has obviously been the flash flooding in Sumner county, where radar-estimated rainfall (confirmed by several surface observations) ranges from 2″ (yellow) to over 6″ (purple) as of 9am:

Numerous water rescues and flooded roads have been reported by emergency management — anything specific reports I relay here will be outdated pretty much as I hit “publish,” so check our Twitter feeds (@WSMV and @PaulHeggenWSMV) for updates.  A couple of the pictures I retweeted this morning shows the effect of the rain just northwest of Gallatin — Bugg Hollow Road covered with fast-moving water:

Station Camp creek runs right along that road, and it sure looks like the creek has run well out of its normal banks.  Garrison Branch Road was also covered with water:

We’ll see an unsettled weather pattern through the weekend.  Off-and-on showers and storms today and tomorrow, but neither day will be a washout — just be flexible with any outdoor plans.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows the hit-and-miss pattern today, with the best chance of additional storms developing this afternoon:

Take that with a BIG grain of salt, because the forecast models don’t typically handle a disorganized pattern like this very well.  Hot and muggy in between the storms, with highs around 90° both today and tomorrow:

The best chance of widespread showers and a few stronger storms will move in Saturday evening into early Sunday, as shown by the RPM model:

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) of severe storms in northwestern Middle Tennessee and the western half of southern Kentucky, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) that includes Nashville:

I’m not overly concerned about our severe weather potential at this point, but Saturday evening’s storms are likely to be more organized than what we’ll see today and during the day tomorrow.  Just plan on staying weather-aware, just in case — we’ll keep you updated.

More showers and non- severe storms throughout the day Sunday:

The lingering rain will keep temperatures cooler on Sunday, with highs only reaching the upper 70s. Dry weather to start the next work week — partly cloudy skies and highs just above 80° on Monday, before the next chance of showers and storms moves in Tuesday and Wednesday:

No time for the nerd-links today, with all of the flooding problems.  Your daily dose of nerdery will be back on Monday…

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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