May 18: Summertime Weather, Daily Links


Summer officially starts on June 20, but we definitely getting preview for the next few days.  It’s very warm and muggy this morning morning — temperatures started off 10-15 degrees above-average, and we’ll reach the mid to upper 80s later today:

Specific hour-by-hour temperatures will depend on whether you get one of the spotty storms we expect to pop up…but even if you can briefly enjoy some-rain cooled air, the humidity isn’t going anywhere.  Dew points will hover in the mid 60s throughout the day — not the top of the Muggy Meter, but certainly uncomfortable:

The mugginess is the fuel for the spotty storms we’re expecting, with the best chances along the Cumberland Plateau and in the northwestern corner of the Midstate:

The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows the pattern — don’t focus on the specific storm placement though, since the thunderstorm activity will be very disorganized:

The big story today will be the significant severe weather threat that will impact Tornado Alley, especially Kansas and Oklahoma.  The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a rare “High Risk” of severe weather, for only the third time this year (in 2015 and 2016 there were ZERO High Risk days across the entire country):

Strong, long-track tornadoes and grapefruit-size hail are the primary concerns with the High Risk zone.  If you know anyone who lives there, make sure they’re staying weather-aware today…they’re likely already on alert, but it never hurts to check!

Back closer to home, we’ve got more of the same in store tomorrow and Saturday…unseasonably warm and humid, spotty storms possible each day:

The best chance of more widespread thunderstorms will move in late Saturday night into early Sunday, then we’ll briefly dry out for the beginning of the new work week.



About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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