May 11: Unsettled Weather Ahead, Daily Links

WEATHER

A few showers on the radar this morning, but nothing you need to worry about — the showers are very light and widely scattered.  That activity will dissipate by midday, leaving us with warm and muggy conditions during the afternoon.  Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 80s:

The humidity will be noticeable (maybe even reaching “unpleasant”) with dew points in the 60s later today:

Thunderstorms are more likely to develop this evening and overnight, especially along and north of I-40.  This radar simulation (from the NSSL WRF model, if you’re a serious weather nerd) shows the pattern from 4pm through midnight:That’s one version of one model — again, the overall pattern is the important take-away.  The specific timing and placement is tough to pin down because this is a “weakly forced” system…while there will be plenty of instability, there won’t be much of a trigger to get the storms going in the first place, and the wind energy won’t be impressive.  Still, a few storms could be strong to severe — the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) of severe storms for southern Kentucky and northwestern Middle Tennessee, with a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) surrounding that:

Plan on staying weather-aware this evening, just to be on the safe side, but this is far from an off-the-charts severe weather threat:

Widespread showers and non-severe storms expected Friday, as the RPM model shows:

High temperatures will only reach the low 70s thanks to the cloud cover:

The rain will be out of the way in time for Mother’s Day weekend!

The warmer (and muggier) air will gradually creep back in next week, with just a limited storm chance by the middle of the week:

 

LINKS

Advertisements

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s