May 11: Unsettled Weather Ahead, Daily Links


A few showers on the radar this morning, but nothing you need to worry about — the showers are very light and widely scattered.  That activity will dissipate by midday, leaving us with warm and muggy conditions during the afternoon.  Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 80s:

The humidity will be noticeable (maybe even reaching “unpleasant”) with dew points in the 60s later today:

Thunderstorms are more likely to develop this evening and overnight, especially along and north of I-40.  This radar simulation (from the NSSL WRF model, if you’re a serious weather nerd) shows the pattern from 4pm through midnight:That’s one version of one model — again, the overall pattern is the important take-away.  The specific timing and placement is tough to pin down because this is a “weakly forced” system…while there will be plenty of instability, there won’t be much of a trigger to get the storms going in the first place, and the wind energy won’t be impressive.  Still, a few storms could be strong to severe — the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) of severe storms for southern Kentucky and northwestern Middle Tennessee, with a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) surrounding that:

Plan on staying weather-aware this evening, just to be on the safe side, but this is far from an off-the-charts severe weather threat:

Widespread showers and non-severe storms expected Friday, as the RPM model shows:

High temperatures will only reach the low 70s thanks to the cloud cover:

The rain will be out of the way in time for Mother’s Day weekend!

The warmer (and muggier) air will gradually creep back in next week, with just a limited storm chance by the middle of the week:



About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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