April 26: Bumpy Weather Ahead, Daily Links


Temperatures will warm up quickly today with partly cloudy skies overhead — highs will reach the low to mid 80s this afternoon:

That’s warm, but not record-setting…today’s record is 91, and record highs through the weekend are around 90 as well.  If you’re heading downtown for the Predators’ plaza party, the weather is looking cooperative!

A good chance of showers and thunderstorms will move in from the west late tonight…the RPM model’s radar simulation shows the storms will be weakening as they move in:

Despite that weakening, we’ll still be watching for a chance of severe weather.  The Storm Prediction Center’s outlook shows the greatest severe weather threat in southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana, tapering to a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) along the Tennessee River late this evening:

The rain will be gone early Thursday, with temperatures bouncing back to the low 70s tomorrow afternoon:

Another chance of storms will develop late Friday, but there are still a lot questions about that one — there will be plenty of warmth and humidity to make the atmosphere unstable, but not much of a “trigger” to get storms started.  I’m going with a better-than-50/50 chance Friday evening, but I wouldn’t cancel any outdoor plans yet — just be flexible with those plans.  The SPC is already showing a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) of severe weather Friday, with an “Enhanced Risk” (level 3 of 5) in our northwestern counties:

It’s certainly possible that the greatest threat will eventually take shape farther to our northwest, but the European forecast model (one of the most-accurate) is still showing widespread storms in the evening.  Stay plugged-into the forecast for potential changes, because this one could go either way.

I think the storms will be gone by the time the marathon starts early Saturday morning, but it’s going to be warm and steamy.  Temperatures will start in the upper 60s, and will already be near or above 80 by the time most of the runners are finishing up:

Dew points will be in the 60s, which is firmly in “yuck” territory on the Muggy Meter:

Yet another chance of storms will move in by late Sunday, and that one looks like it will bring the greatest potential for severe weather — both the American GFS model and the European model are pointing toward a significant severe weather threat.  That said, it’s several days off, so there’s time for the pattern to change:

Once Sunday’s storm system moves through, the weather will settle down for a few days.



About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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