Just a slight chance of a pop-up storm during the afternoon, before a better chance of showers and scattered thunderstorms moves in from the northwest late tonight. The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows the limited daytime activity, and the approach of tonight’s rain:
Showers and storms likely Friday, especially in the afternoon and early evening — the RPM model’s depiction of that activity looks reasonable:
A few of the storms could be strong, with damaging winds and localized flooding the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center has included us in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe weather:
That means you can expect numerous thunderstorms, but only a few of those storms will approach severe limits. Don’t lose any sleep over it.
Strong to severe storms still possible Saturday, but that system is still defying any attempts to pin down some details. Everything depends on where the low pressure “heart” of the storm system goes — a northerly track is bad news for us, a southerly track keeps the severe weather potential pushed down to our south:
The SPC is betting on the southern track, as reflected in their outlook for Saturday:
But the SPC’s own ensemble forecast (a blend of 25+ different models) is showing a 40-50% chance of storms with supercell ingredients right here in the Midstate on Saturday:
That model (or more accurately, collection of models) has been very consistent in that depiction over the last 24 hours — we’ll see if it remains consistent over the next 48 hours, or if it shifts the severe threat farther south.
At this point, the only things you should be doing:
1) Adjusting outdoor plans for the likelihood of rain on Saturday.
2) Planning to stay weather-aware throughout the day Saturday.
Notice that “panic” and “freak out” aren’t on the list.
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