April 19: June-Like Pattern Continues, Daily Links

WEATHER

Warm and muggy conditions will persist again today, with highs reaching the low 80s this afternoon:

Still a chance for scattered storms, but they won’t be as widespread or as heavy as what we saw the past couple of days.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation has performed adequately the past couple of days, and it shows this morning’s showers fizzling, then more storms popping up from mid-afternoon into early this evening:

Dry weather during the day Thursday, with highs in the mid 80s:

Another chance of showers and storms moves in late Thursday night and Friday.  Right now it looks like the storms that approach us Thursday evening will weak as they move in, then we’ll see a better chance of storms re-developing along and south of I-40 on Friday:

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe weather Friday — that means we’re expecting numerous storms, but only a few of those storms will approach severe limits:

Saturday is the “interesting” day in the forecast…a threat of severe thunderstorms will develop somewhere in the southeastern U.S., but the exactly placement of that threat is still really up in the air.  A storm system will move in from the west, with warm and muggy (and therefore unstable) air being dragged northward ahead of it:

The placement of the greatest severe threat will be determined by the path of the storm system — if the path of the low pressure “heart” of the storm system goes to our north or pretty much overhead, we could be in trouble.  That’s the scenario being depicted by the European forecast model:

If that surface low goes to our south, we’ll be mostly in the clear (but we’ll still get plenty of rain).  That’s the way the American GFS model has been trending:

But there’s still plenty of uncertainty!  The Storm Prediction Center’s ensemble model (a blend of 25+ different models) shows all of the various possibilities of where that surface low will be located early Saturday afternoon, and they’re all over the place:

Until those L’s start to cluster together, forecast uncertainty will remain high — we’ll keep you updated as the weekend gets closer, and we’ll hope that the projected track shifts farther south.

Cool and showery for the second half of the weekend, then things dry out and warm up again early next week:

 

LINKS

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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