Severe Weather Behind Us AND Ahead of Us

Severe weather is behind us AND ahead of us….of course, with two separate systems, but still in the same week.

Last night’s severe weather outbreak resulted in two tornadoes confirmed in our area.  One was in Decatur County — an EF1 — that packed wind between 100 and 110 mph.  The other (also an EF1) was produced by the same storm, touching down in Lewis County moments later.

DT TORNADO Confirmed

The Lewis County tornado initially set down seven miles west of Hohenwald, at 6:13pm.  It began at Old Hohenwald Road, crossed Highway 412, rolled northeastward, and eventually lifted a couple miles north of Hohenwald.  Much of the damage was to trees that were sheared off or uprooted.  Minor structural damage was also reported by the National Weather Service’s site survey team this afternoon.  The photo below was taken by that crew today.

DT_Picture2

Looking ahead, tomorrow (like today) will be pleasant and uneventful….thankfully!

DT 15

However, come Thursday, the risk for severe storms will return to Middle Tennessee.

DT_SEVERE RISK REGION

From the map above (which shows the likelihood for severe weather on Thursday), the greatest chance for severe weather will be along the Tennessee River.  The lowest risk is for the Cumberland Plateau.  The reason for that is in part due to the timing of the event.

We expect a round of showers and weakening thunderstorms to move in from the west early Thursday morning.  They’ll be left over storms from the night before in Arkansas, outrunning their support, so fizzling as they go.  Severe weather’s not anticipated with those.  Remnant rain from that initial wave will likely even have trouble surviving all the way to the I-65 corridor before dissipating completely.

It’s storms that form Thursday evening, moving in from the west, that have the greatest chance of causing problems/severe weather for us.  Right now, the general consensus from several computer models is that this will occur around dark or just after dark.  The deeper we go into the night, the cooler the lower atmosphere will be, so the less intense the storms should be (as they move eastward).  The latest NAM 3km shown below (one of the computer models we consult) shows its latest “thinking” for how all this will unfold, echoing my description above.  The last frame in the animation is for 1AM Friday (showing the storms east of I-65 by then).

nam4km.refcmp.us_ov.2017032818-loop

SO….we’ve issued a 4WARN Weather Alert for Thursday to help convey this storm threat.  Tonight on Channel 4 News at 10pm, Lisa Spencer will have an update on all of the above.

In the meantime…have a great night!

DT

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