March 24: Stormy Weather Tomorrow, Daily Links

WEATHER

Dry, warm and breezy weather will prevail through tonight, with temperatures remaining above 60° throughout the night:

We’ll warm up to the low to mid 70s on Saturday:

Temperatures aren’t the story of the weekend, though…

Thunderstorms will be moving in from the west on Saturday, with the first wave falling apart Saturday morning as it crosses the Tennessee River.  Another round of storms will develop in the afternoon and evening, and these will bring the greatest severe weather potential.  The NAM-3km forecast model (don’t worry about the name, just including it for the serious weather nerds) shows the overall pattern of the morning fizzle:

And the afternoon/evening re-development:

Damaging winds will be the main threat, but hail, isolated tornadoes, and heavy downpours will also be possible:

The greatest threat of severe weather will be west of I-65 and south of I-40.  That’s where the Storm Prediction Center’s ensemble model shows a greater-than-50% chance of thunderstorms with severe characteristics:

The SPC’s official outlook outlines a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for roughly the western half of the Midstate, with a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) for the rest of the area:

All of that sounds pretty ominous, but there are still a couple of ways that our severe weather threat could rapidly diminish.  One is if the morning storms don’t fizzle — that would keep temperatures lower and stabilize the atmosphere.  The other is if the level of moisture in the atmosphere, which already looks borderline to begin with, never climbs enough to destabilize the atmosphere.

Overall, my advice is simple: don’t freak out — just plan on staying weather-aware on Saturday.  Dan Thomas will be on early in the morning with an update on the timing and strength of the storms, and I’ll be here with Daphne DeLoren to track the storms once (if!) they develop.  If you’ll be out and about, you can stay up-to-date on the go — download our 4WARN mobile app at this link.  Once it’s on your phone/tablet, go to “Settings” under the drop-down menu:
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Then turn on the Severe Weather Alerts:
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You can follow us on Twitter as well (Facebook is essentially useless for severe weather information) — links are at the bottom of this post.  The only thing I can guarantee is that there WILL be more changes to the forecast, so we’ll keep you updated.

Just a few lingering showers for the second half of the weekend, with highs in the low 70s.  Another round of storms heads our way on Monday, with another round of storms on Thursday, and yet another possible by next Sunday.  Temperatures will remain well above average through the end of March:

 

LINKS

 

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Social media links

Twitter: @WSMVweather, @PaulHeggenWSMV, @WSMVLisaSpencer, @WSMVDanThomas, @daphne_deloren, @NWSNashville

Facebook: 4WARN Weather, Paul Heggen WSMV, Lisa Spencer, Dan Thomas WSMV, Daphne DeLoren, NWS Nashville

Instagram: PaulHeggenWSMV

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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