Today’s showers have moved off to the east, and we’ll see clearing skies this evening, which will allow temperatures to drop to the mid 50s by midnight. But as southerly winds pick up, our temperatures will stay right there — we’ll start in the mid 50s Friday morning:
Saturday will bring our next chance of showers and thunderstorms, and some of the storms could be severe in the afternoon and evening. Still a lot of questions about this system, the biggest of which is, will we see rain early in the day? If we do, that would help to stabilize the atmosphere and lower our severe weather potential later in the day. That’s pretty much the scenario depicted by our RPM forecast model:
But, notice that “break” between rain chances — the longer that break is, the more time the atmosphere will have to recover and destabilize again. A different scenario is depicted by the NAM model, which shows the first batch of storms fizzling before it even reaches the Tennessee River — that means the atmosphere over the Midstate would be “ready to go” for severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening:
The uncertainty shown between the forecast models is part of why the Storm Prediction Center has outlined most of the Midstate in just a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) for severe storms, with southwestern Middle Tennessee included in a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5):
In terms of geography, that lines up very well with what the SPC’s ensemble forecast model (a blend of over 25 different models) is showing — a 50-70% chance of storms with severe characteristics late Saturday afternoon:
However, those specific numbers are pretty high, which indicates that the SPC might bump up the categories in future outlooks.
Just a few lingering showers early Sunday, then partial clearing with high temperatures near 70° for the second half of the weekend. Another chance of strong storms will move towards the Midstate by Monday:
At the moment, the SPC is once again focused on areas just to our southwest for the greatest severe weather potential:
That’s a long way off, so we’ll keep an eye on it. Even a longer way off is yet another chance of strong storms late next week — right now late Thursday and Thursday night would be the best guess, but we’ll have plenty of time to focus on that as it gets closer.
A shorter-than-normal batch of nerdiness today — I’m not used to doing the evening shift, so I didn’t have as much time to mine the internet.
- NOAA had its newest satellite, GOES-16, pointed at the severe storms over the Midstate Tuesday evening…the imagery loop is mesmerizing.
- The Weather Channel’s Dr. Marshall Shepherd chimes in with this article: “Why People Think Weather Forecasts Are Bad When They Are Actually Pretty Good.”
- Speaking of that network, the director of the National Hurricane Center is leaving for the Weather Channel.
- Believe it or not, there’s a chance 2017 could pass 2016 as the planet’s warmest year.
- A series of six maps shows how Americans think about climate change — the results are actually a little surprising.
- The last piece of the ice sheet that once blanketed much of North America is doomed to disappear in the next several centuries.
- The Curiosity Mars rover’s wheels are starting to break.
- The European Space Agency’s Rosetta mission keeps yielding new findings — a giant cliff collapse observed on comet 67-P reveals pristine ice beneath the surface.
- Soaking in a hot bath could do some of the same things for your body as exercise (but you should still exercise).
- On National Puppy Day, see how the chemical makeup of your brain is responsible for their unbearable cuteness.