Strong thunderstorms will move in from the west by late afternoon and into this evening. The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows storms approaching the Tennessee River by 3-4pm, along I-65 by 5-6pm, then moving off the Cumberland Plateau already by 8pm:
It also shows a few storms developing ahead of the main batch, which will also be potentially severe. That’s one version of one model — others are a little slower or faster, so we’ll be updating the hour-by-hour timing throughout the day. The best chance of severe thunderstorms will be along and south of I-40 — the Storm Prediction Center’s ensemble model (a blend of 25+ different forecast models) shows a 70% chance of storms with severe characteristics in that part of the Midstate through early evening:
The specific severe thunderstorm ingredients aren’t off-the-charts, but they’re sufficient to produce both damaging wind and large hail threats. The SPC has outlined an “Enhanced Risk” (level 3 of 5) of severe storms, roughly along and south of I-40:
The rest of the Midstate is under a “Slight Risk” (2 of 5) or “Marginal Risk” (1 of 5) — the farther north you go, the less concerned you should be. And overall, while this setup is enough to get your attention, I’m honestly surprised that the SPC went as high as Enhanced Risk for today. Just plan on staying weather-aware and we’ll keep you updated.
Another round of showers and storms heads our way Saturday. As of this morning, the SPC is still showing the greatest potential for severe weather just off to our southwest, but close enough that we’ll have to keep an eye on it:
Beginning Saturday, the European forecast model (the most-accurate of the long-range models) shows us in a pattern of “every 48 hours” storm chances. That means more storms Monday, then again next Wednesday:
Those systems will need to be monitored for severe-weather potential as well. It’s definitely springtime!
- Today is the first full day of spring…astronomical spring, that is. Meteorological spring began back on March 1. What’s the difference?
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- Elsewhere in the world, heavy rain is producing flooding and mudslides in Peru.
- Too close for comfort: Europe’s largest active volcano, Mount Etna, erupts and nearly kills a BBC crew.
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- Chuck Berry is gone, but his music is still flying through the cosmos.
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- The practice of science produces a LOT of trash. How some labs are trying to go a big greener.
- Films of U.S. nuclear tests are being declassified, restored and released to the public.