Calm Before Potential Severe Storms & Weekend Snow?!

What a beautiful day! I flew in from a quick visit to family in Florida last night and the temperature feels no different in Nashville today, in the low to upper 70s — just about twenty degrees ABOVE average.

WSMV DMA TEMPS ZOOM1_EffectSquiggle Autoplot

Clouds slowly but surely build in from west to east and it is all ahead of our next weather maker, arriving as soon as tonight.

VIDEO TVI

This puts us under a 4WARN WEATHER ALERT…

The Storm Prediction center expands the ‘Slight’ Risk (2 out of a 1 to 5 scale for any storms to reach severe criteria) further east into Middle Tennessee, covering most areas west of I-65. All areas under the GREEN color remain under a ‘Marginal Risk’ (1 out of a 1 to 5 scale for any storms to reach severe criteria)DAPHNE SEVERE RISK REGION NEW

The greatest threats include:

1.Damaging winds & 2. Large hail

The lesser threat includes an isolated tornado.DD SEVERE STORM THREAT

The storms will move from west to east, starting around 9:00 pm. Here’s the timeline…

DD RPM 12KM EVENINGDD RPM 12KM EVENING2DD RPM 12KM EVENING3DD RPM 12KM EVENING4

The bulk of the activity tapers off by 3:00 am on Friday. You may catch an early morning isolated shower during your morning commute but that is about all.DD RPM 12KM EVENING5

Friday will be a break with more sunshine, noticeably cooler temperatures in the lower 50s and breezy northerly winds. Not much on Futurecast here. 🙂DD RPM 12KM EVENING6DD RPM 12KM EVENING7

Now here’s system #2 knocking on the door — the kind we are not used to this season, including a mix of rain/snow and plain snow at times. Yepp, the ‘s’ word comes out! Any outdoor errands should be done within the morning on Saturday.DD RPM 12KM EVENING8

By late afternoon, we’ll start with rain/snow mixed showers before precipitation transitions to all snow by the evening and night.These systems can be tricky, in terms of accumulation predictions and the rain/snow cut off line. A slight shift, north south east or west can be the difference between inches for specific areas so this will be one to keep a close eye on as time pans closer. Here’s the latest model run, with a focus on our northern counties, especially north of I-40.DD RPM 12KM EVENING9

As the system continues pushing south and east, most of the precipitation is expected in the form of snow by the evening into the overnight.DD RPM 12KM EVENING11DD RPM 12KM EVENING12

The average of all snowfall accumulation forecast models currently predict between 2 and 3 inches for Nashville but then again…things could significantly change with time. I’ll keep you posted and I’ll be here all weekend.

WSMV 4DAY FORECAST

I’ll have more on this evenings upcoming storms and weekend snow coming up on Channel 4 at 4 & 4:30 today. Chief Meteorologist Lisa Spencer will have updates at 5, 6, 6:30 & 10 tonight.

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