March 8: Spring, Then Winter? And Daily Links


Some patchy dense fog out there this morning as I’m typing this, but it will dissipate quickly and we’ll see lots of sunshine the rest of the day.  Temperatures will reach the upper 60s this afternoon:

We’ll fall back to the low 40s overnight:

Low 70s for high temperatures Thursday:

Dry during the day Thursday, before a decent chance of rain moves in Thursday night.  The RPM model’s radar simulation shows passing showers — probably less than a tenth of an inch of rain, but enough to wash a little pollen out of the air:

Cooler but dry Friday, then the weekend forecast is “complicated.”  We’re going to see moisture moving towards us from the southwest, and cold air moving towards us from the northwest — the specific combination of those two factors will determine our specific weather over the weekend.  It all depends on the path of the parent storm system:

If I had to pick, I’d wager on a northerly track…but in reality, I wouldn’t bet a single nickel of money on this type of weather pattern.  It’s that unpredictable, so be sure to stay plugged-into the forecast for changes the rest of the week.  For now, I’m leaving chilly rain showers in the forecast Saturday, with a little bit of sleet or snow as a possibility as the showers end Saturday night into early Sunday morning:

So, what if the storm system follows a southerly track?  IF that happens, we’ll be talking about heavier snow.  The European forecast model and American GFS model were both painting that scenario this morning:

That patterns indicate model-estimated snowfall, not snow depth — the difference can be huge this time of year, especially since models have a hard time differentiating between sleet and snow.  It’s too early to talk about potential accumulations, which is why I’m only showing you the pattern (without any numbers).  The ground will be wet and warm, which would diminish any accumulations.  But it certainly can snow in March!  Nashville’s all-time record snowfall of 17″ occurred on St. Patrick’s Day, way back in 1892.  Rest assured, we’ll keep an eye on it as the weekend approaches.  The bottom line at this point: the weekend does NOT look favorable for outdoor chores or recreation.



About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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