Thunderstorms are moving in from the west this morning, bringing with them heavy rainfall and the possibility of isolated damaging wind gusts. The heaviest rain will fall this morning, then we’ll see decreasing clouds this afternoon. The HRRR model’s radar simulation has a good handle on the pattern of the heaviest rain:
The timing of the strongest storms and heaviest rain looks like this:
While the timing of the rain and storms is eerily similar to last week’s severe weather outbreak, the severe weather threat is MUCH lower this time around! The Storm Prediction Center just has us in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) for severe storms, with a “Slight Risk” area (level 2 of 5) just off to our southwest:
Overall, while it’s possible we’ll see some damaging wind reports out of this, it’s not likely. The wind will be gusty before and after the storms, enough for a Wind Advisory from the National Weather Service, in effect until noon for most of us (until 3pm along the Cumberland Plateau):
Temperatures today will hover in the upper 50s to low 60s until colder air moves in tonight:
The weekend looks…complicated.
Another storm system is going to move through the middle of the country — of that much I’m confident. Right now it looks like we’ll be on the cool side of the system, which means a good chance of chilly rain showers on Saturday, then MAYBE enough cold air to prompt a brief changeover to a rain/snow mix early Sunday morning:
Don’t get your hopes and/or fears up for any accumulation, though. The ground is warm, it will be wet, and I’m skeptical as to whether there will be enough moisture leftover for any flakes. As always, we’ll keep an eye on it!
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