Off-and-on scattered showers have been moving across the Midstate this morning, and more showers will be with us throughout the day. The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows a break from the best rain chances around midday, but keep the rain jacket handy:
Despite the clouds, strong southerly winds will still warm us up to the upper 60s for highs:
Wind gusts will be well over 20mph, at times exceeding 30mph:
A better chance of heavy rain along with some thunderstorms will approach us tonight from the northwest. The RPM model’s radar simulation shows the storms moving in around sunrise, moving to the southeast throughout the day on Tuesday:
The greatest severe weather threat tonight will remain well to our northwest:
As the storms move in, our severe weather potential looks limited…at this point, the Storm Prediction Center hasn’t even included us in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms after 6am Tuesday:
I think the SPC will eventually have to expand that Marginal Risk into our neck of the woods, but I seriously doubt it will go any higher than that. The SPC’s ensemble model shows a 50%+ chance of favorable severe-weather ingredients as the storms move in:
Almost all of that is due to the wind energy overhead. On top of that, the “analog” forecast (comparing tomorrow’s pattern to similar historical patterns) estimates a 30% of 5+ severe reports:
All of that sounds pretty ominous, but it looks like the atmosphere overhead won’t be very unstable — instability is the fuel for strong storms, so if that stays low we’re in good shape. If we do see some severe thunderstorm warnings issued, it will almost certainly be for a damaging wind threat.
Thursday night’s rain will linger into Friday, then another storm system will bring us additional rain late Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center is already keeping an eye on Saturday’s severe weather potential, including us in their extended outlook:
That will depend on how warm we get on Saturday — I’m only forecasting highs in the low 60s, which wouldn’t be warm enough for a significant severe weather threat. Even the SPC admits in their outlook discussion that “the exact details of the threat area will probably change in later outlooks.” It’s still a long way down the line in the forecast, so we’ll just keep an eye on potential changes. At this point, I’m leaving the forecast dry and cooler for Sunday and Monday:
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