WEATHER
Widespread rain this morning made for a wet commute, but the showers will wind down by midday…the HRRR model’s radar simulation has a good handle on that:
A few breaks in the clouds this afternoon will allow temperatures to top out in the low 60s:
If the clouds are more stubborn we’ll be stuck in the upper 50s, but hey, let’s be optimistic.
Even warmer weather in store Tuesday and Wednesday, when high temperatures will reach the low to mid 70s:
Scattered thunderstorms possible off-and-on during the day Tuesday — I’m not wild about how any of the forecast models are depicting the hour-by-hour rain chances, but it will be warm and almost-muggy (weird for February), and that’s a favorable environment for at least some scattered activity.
There’s a better chance of strong to severe storms on the way Wednesday. At this point, I think the most-likely scenario is that we’ll see scattered storms in the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday morning, as shown on the RPM model’s radar simulation:
While it’s possible that those storms could approach severe limits, the timing (early morning) and atmospheric setup won’t support a huge severe weather risk just yet. The greater severe weather threat will arrive by late morning and early afternoon, as a line of thunderstorms moves across the Midstate:
That timing is FAR from set in stone — some of the model data is a little faster (which would mean a lower severe threat), some of the data is slower (which would mean an even higher threat). As it stands now, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of the Midstate in an “Enhanced Risk” (level 3 of 5) of severe weather on Wednesday, with the remainder of the area in a “Slight Risk” region (level 2 of 5):
It’s not often that the SPC goes as high as that Enhanced Risk phrasing in their Day 3 outlook, which gives you an idea that this storm system means business. But don’t panic! There are still plenty of ways this could turn out to be a lower threat for us…we’ll keep you posted as the next 48 hours unfold.
Cooler and drier weather will settle in the rest of the work week, then we’ll warm back up over the weekend:
The next chance of rain should hold off until after the weekend.
LINKS
- This week is Tennessee Severe Weather Awareness Week (appropriate, considering Wednesday’s threat). Today’s topic: flooding and flash floods.
- Sad news yesterday: actor Bill Paxton passed away at a far-too-young age of 61. His passing led to a lot of reminiscing online about how “Twister” changed the perception of storm-chasing.
- The U.S. is poised to set a record-setting record. (Sounds weird, right?)
- More perspective on how weird our warm February has been nationwide.
- The climate system is heating up faster than species can migrate to adapt.
- It’s the paradox of climate change…globally warmer conditions can lead to locally cooler conditions, like a potential drastic cooling of the North Atlantic.
- Some startling pictures of what parts of America looked like before the Environmental Protection Agency was established in 1970.
- Thirty years after its explosion was observed on Earth, supernova 1987A is still visible by telescope today.
- The history of our solar system is chaotic — the evidence of that chaos still exists here on Earth.
- When astronomers talk about “potentially-habitable” exoplanets, what does “habitable” really mean? Could it just mean “lethal nightmare planet”?
- Astronomers have discovered a teeny-tiny faint satellite galaxy of our Milky Way.
- Cosmic superclusters, the Universe’s largest structures, don’t actually exist.
- Mothers and fathers don’t always share their genetic influence over their children’s cells equally.
- Why don’t ticks die of Lyme Disease?
