February 27: Spring-Like Weather Again, Daily Links

WEATHER

Widespread rain this morning made for a wet commute, but the showers will wind down by midday…the HRRR model’s radar simulation has a good handle on that:
hrrr_2017022712_ref_nashville
A few breaks in the clouds this afternoon will allow temperatures to top out in the low 60s:
monday-highs
If the clouds are more stubborn we’ll be stuck in the upper 50s, but hey, let’s be optimistic.

Even warmer weather in store Tuesday and Wednesday, when high temperatures will reach the low to mid 70s:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-1
Scattered thunderstorms possible off-and-on during the day Tuesday — I’m not wild about how any of the forecast models are depicting the hour-by-hour rain chances, but it will be warm and almost-muggy (weird for February), and that’s a favorable environment for at least some scattered activity.

There’s a better chance of strong to severe storms on the way Wednesday.  At this point, I think the most-likely scenario is that we’ll see scattered storms in the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday morning, as shown on the RPM model’s radar simulation:
rpm-3a-wed rpm-5a-wed
While it’s possible that those storms could approach severe limits, the timing (early morning) and atmospheric setup won’t support a huge severe weather risk just yet.  The greater severe weather threat will arrive by late morning and early afternoon, as a line of thunderstorms moves across the Midstate:
rpm-10a-wed rpm-12p-wed rpm-2p-wed rpm-4p-wed
That timing is FAR from set in stone — some of the model data is a little faster (which would mean a lower severe threat), some of the data is slower (which would mean an even higher threat).  As it stands now, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of the Midstate in an “Enhanced Risk” (level 3 of 5) of severe weather on Wednesday, with the remainder of the area in a “Slight Risk” region (level 2 of 5):
paul-severe-risk-region
It’s not often that the SPC goes as high as that Enhanced Risk phrasing in their Day 3 outlook, which gives you an idea that this storm system means business.  But don’t panic!  There are still plenty of ways this could turn out to be a lower threat for us…we’ll keep you posted as the next 48 hours unfold.

Cooler and drier weather will settle in the rest of the work week, then we’ll warm back up over the weekend:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-2
The next chance of rain should hold off until after the weekend.

 

LINKS

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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