February 24: Record Warmth, Severe Storms, Daily Links

WEATHER

Exceptionally warm and breezy weather today, with high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80° and southerly winds gusting to 30 mph:
friday-highs paul-rpm-wind-gusts
Today’s record high is 77° set all the way back in 1890, and that record looks likely to fall.  If we do hit 80° in Nashville, it will be only the fourth 80°+ reading in the month of February since record-keeping began back in the 1870s.  (Thanks to loyal 4WARN commenter and fellow climate nerd Fred for doing the research on that particular bit of trivia!)  The all-time February record is 84° set on February 13, 1962…that looks to be safe, but we’ll give it a run!

A good chance of thunderstorms will sweep across the Midstate from west to east this evening and tonight — the HRRR model’s radar simulation shows a few showers ahead of the “main event,” but those won’t be anything more than a nuisance:
hrrr_2017022411_ref_15min_nashville
Other forecast models show slightly different timing — smoothing out the differences between those models, here’s when you can expect the strongest storms (along with the odds of storms occurring in the first place):
paul-storm-timing
All of the available data shows the greatest severe threat shaping up along and east of I-65 after 8pm, but even with the main line of storms, this isn’t an off-the-charts threat.  The Storm Prediction Center’s short-range ensemble model (SREF) crunches the numbers and shows a 30-50% chance of storms with severe weather ingredients this evening, with the highest potential to the north of I-40 and east of I-65:
sref_prob_combined_supercell__f018 sref_prob_combined_supercell__f021
The SPC has outlined a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) for severe storms to the northeast of Nashville, with a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) for most of the rest of the Midstate:
paul-severe-risk-region
The greatest tornado potential will be to our north, in the “Enhanced Risk” area.  Damaging straight-line winds will be the main threat in our neck of the woods:
paul-severe-risk-graph

Behind tonight’s storm system, substantially cooler weather will settle in over the weekend.  Temperatures will remain in the 40s all day Saturday, dropping below freezing Saturday night, then warming back up to the mid 50s Sunday afternoon:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-1

Then we warm right back up next week — Tuesday will be the warmest and driest day, before another good chance of showers and storms Wednesday cools us off for the remainder of the week:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-2

 

LINKS

Better late than never, your daily dose of nerdery…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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