4WARN Weather Alert

A 4WARN Weather Alert is in effect for Friday night for the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms.  As you know a warm moist spring-like air mass is hanging over Middle Tennessee.  A cold front in moving out the plains and mid west and set to arrive here tomorrow evening.  That is setting the perfect recipe for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop.  More on this in a moment.

Today the high reached 75 in Nashville, not a record, but very warm for late February.  Tomorrow a new record will likely be set with a forecast of 80 degrees.  The old record is 77.

lisa-special-forecast-4

Another  high number tomorrow will be the pollen count in the medium high category.

wsmv-pollen-count

The front will approach tomorrow evening.  The Storm Prediction Center has areas north of I-40 in a “Slight Risk” zone, 2 on a 1-5 scale and the rest of Middle Tennessee in a “Marginal Risk” zone, 1 on a 1-5 scale.

lisa-severe-risk-region

The greatest threat will be from damaging wind, but heavy downpours and some hail is possible.  Isolated tornadoes can not be ruled out.

lisa-what-to-expect-severe

The timing is tomorrow night 6pm to 12mid, moving across the area west to east. Here’s the latest Futurecast depiction.

Cold air spills in for the weekend. Saturday will be a very chilly 49 degrees for the high and it will be dry.  Sunday dry during the day with a high of 55 degrees, some showers move Sunday night. Temperatures continue rise Monday into the low 60s.  There will be a greater chance of rain.WSMV 4DAY FORECAST.png

I’ll have an update coming up tonight on Channel 4 News at 10pm.

Lisa Spencer

 

 

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About Lisa Spencer

Lisa Spencer is the chief meteorologist at WSMV Channel 4 Nashville. You can catch her weathercasts weekdays at 5pm, 6pm and 10pm.
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5 Responses to 4WARN Weather Alert

  1. Fred says:

    On this day in 1996 the temperature soared to 83, only the third, and so far, final (tomorrow might have something to say about that) instance of 80 degree weather in February or any winter month for that matter. Other occurrences were in 1982 (82, again on the 23rd) and 1962 (84 on 13th). Ironically, February 1996 began brutally cold: temps dipped to 3 below on the 4th and 5th, with the windchill near -20 on the morning of the 4th: https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBNA/1996/2/4/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=
    The 86-degree range of temperatures in one month was exceeded, to my knowledge, only in February 1951, which, similarly, started with fiercely cold conditions, the infamous “Great Blizzard”
    https://www.weather.gov/ohx/1951icestorm, and then reached 74 on two occasions to produce an astonishing range of 87 degrees. As far as the total range of observed temperatures for one month is concerned, February again leads the field with 97 deg. difference between the highest and the lowest temperatures, January being a close second with 95 (-17 to 78). Even though conventional wisdom typically ascribes “madness” to March, historically, February is the “moodiest” month in Middle Tennesee, i.e. it has the greatest deviation for average high, low, and daily mean temperatures. Apparently, the Romans knew a thing or two about climatology when they named the month, it frequently behaves as if in a fever, indeed.

  2. Fred says:

    Glad to hear that my efforts are appreciated, Paul!

  3. Fred says:

    Gonna add this while there’s still time. The record-breaking day yesterday set another record: it became the warmest day overall for the month of February with the daily mean of 71.5 (high of 81 and low of 62) and only This is the average for late May which we had 3 months ahead of schedule.
    (Almost) Summer days in winter (daily mean >= 70)
    1. Jan. 25,1950 72
    2. Feb. 24, 2017 71.5
    3. Feb. 21,1897 71
    4. Dec. 3,1982 71
    5. Jan. 18,1907 70
    6. Feb. 10,1932 70
    7. Dec. 2, 1982 70
    Additional more relevant data: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=TN_ASOS&zstation=BNA&month=feb&var=max_tmpf&dpi=100&_fmt=png
    It’s nice to finally get a break from the unseasonable heat.

  4. Fred says:

    Oops, messed up. Disregard the “and only” in “the daily mean of 71.5 (high of 81 and low of 62) and only This is the average for” and the “more” in “Additional more relevant data” .

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