February 22: Still Very Warm, Daily Links

WEATHER

Some lingering light showers this morning will taper off to just an isolated shower chance this afternoon.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation has a good handle on that pattern:
hrrr_2017022212_ref_nashville
Still warm despite the cloud cover, with highs topping out just above 70° this afternoon:
wednesday-highs

Remaining warm overnight, with lows in the mid 50s:
thursday-lows

We’ll hit the low to mid 70s for highs on Thursday, and the upper 70s on Friday!  Thursday’s record high temperatures looks out of reach, but Friday’s record high (from 127 years ago!) is in serious jeopardy:
paul-heat-wave

Just an isolated shower chance Thursday and during the day Friday, then a good chance of some strong storms Friday evening and overnight.  The RPM model’s radar simulation shows a line of storms moving west-to-east through the Midstate:
rpm-6p-fri rpm-9p-fri rpm-12a-sat rpm-3a-sat
The most-favorable mix of severe weather ingredients will come together off to our north, where the Storm Prediction Center has outlined an “Enhanced Risk” of severe thunderstorms:
paul-severe-risk-region
In our neck of the woods, the SPC is showing a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) in southern Kentucky, with a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) for much of Middle Tennessee.  At this point, the only thing you should do to prepare is to put it in the back of your mind to stay weather-aware Friday evening.

Behind that system Friday night, temperatures will be near-average over the weekend, with highs in the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-2
Back to a warm and unsettled weather pattern next week, with the possibility of some strong storms again on Wednesday — but that’s WAY out there at this point, so we’ll just keep an eye on it for you.

 

LINKS

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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