February 21: Spring-Like Weather Continues, Daily Links

WEATHER

Showers are trying to move into the Midstate this morning, but the dry air in place over our heads is eating away at the first waves of rain.  Less than a 50-50 chance of rain through early afternoon, then late this afternoon and this evening those odds will go up:
paul-daypart-pops
The HRRR model’s radar simulation has a pretty handle on the overall pattern:
hrrr_2017022111_ref_nashville
Still warm today, with highs in the upper 60s:
tuesday-highs

Temperatures will remain mild on Wednesday, starting off in the mid 50s with just a few spotty lingering showers…
wednesday-lows
…then back to around 70° by Wednesday afternoon:
wednesday-highs

The warm weather will continue through the end of the work week, with highs in the low 70s on Thursday and the mid 70s on Friday:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-1
The daily temperature record in the greatest jeopardy is Friday’s…and that’s an OLD record:
paul-heat-wave

A strong cold front Friday night could spark some strong storms — the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a extended-range (more than 3 days in advance) severe thunderstorm risk just to our north:
friday-severe
We’ll keep an eye on it just in case the mix of severe weather ingredients takes shape a little closer to us.

That Friday night cold front will bring in cooler air for the weekend:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-2
High temperatures in the 50s and lows in the 30s will feel chilly after this week’s warm spell, but those are normal temperatures for late February.  The cool down won’t last long — we’ll be back into the 60s for the last couple days of February.

Assuming that forecast through next Tuesday is close to accurate (insert your own jokes here), this could go into the books as one of the five warmest Februarys (Februaries?) on record in Nashville, and one of the five warmest winters (Dec-Jan-Feb) on record as well.  Record-keeping in Nashville dates back to the 1870s, so both milestones would be significant.

 

LINKS

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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