February 16: Warm Spell Begins Today, Daily Links

WEATHER

We had a cold start this morning…
observed-lows
…but a big warm-up will start to kick in today!  Abundant sunshine and a light southwesterly breeze will push temperatures up to the upper 50s this afternoon:
thursday-highs

Clear skies tonight, with lows dropping back to the upper 30s…
friday-lows
…then we’ll hit the mid to upper 60s for highs on Friday:
friday-highs

A little cooler and cloudy on Saturday with light rain showers possible, mainly in the afternoon and evening…the RPM model’s radar simulation isn’t terribly impressed with the amount or duration of the rain, but you may want to re-think any outdoor plans that are especially sensitive to any dampness:
rpm-12p-sat rpm-4p-sat rpm-8p-sat rpm-12a-sun

Clearing and warmer for the rest of the Presidents’ Day weekend. High temperatures Sunday through most of next week will top out at least in the 60s, even above 70°!
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-2
Just a slight chance of a shower or storm around the middle of next week — the long-range forecast model data is all over the place with that, so we’ll leave the percentages pretty low for now.

There aren’t any real signs of a prolonged cold snap to balance out this long warm spell.  The Climate Prediction Center’s latest long-range outlooks came out today, and they call for a decent chance of above-average temperatures in March:
off14_temp-feb16
And the March-April-May spring outlook shows a significant chance of above average temperatures for those three months as a whole:
off01_temp-feb16
That doesn’t mean there won’t be a couple of brief cold snaps here and there, and it doesn’t mean our chances of snow are zero from here on out…but it means the overall trend of “unseasonably warm” weather looks like it will continue for a while.

 

LINKS

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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