February 14: Rainy Valentine’s Day, Daily Links

WEATHER

A good chance of rain showers will be moving in from the west over the next 24 hours.  Temperatures will only reach the upper 40s thanks to the cloud cover and scattered showers:
tuesday-highs
The best chance of rain today will be along and north of I-40, then the best chance of rain tonight will be along and south of I-40.  That’s a generalization — as the HRRR model’s radar simulation shows, a few showers will creep onto the “other” side of that I-40 dividing line today, before fully shifting southward (the loop goes through 11pm):
hrrr_2017021411_ref_nashville
We’ll let the RPM model pick things up from there as the rain slowly diminishes from north-to-south overnight:
rpm-11p-tue rpm-1a-wed rpm-3a-wed rpm-5a-wed rpm-7a-wed

The showers should be gone by early Wednesday morning, leaving us with decreasing clouds and highs near 50°:
wednesday-highs

After a cold start Thursday morning, a big warm-up will kick in — highs Thursday will reach the mid 50s, then we’ll be well into the 60s Friday:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-1

The warm spell continues into the holiday weekend:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-2
Some showers are possible on Saturday — the European forecast model is pretty impressed with our rain chances, while all of the other long-range data is significantly drier.  The Euro is the more accurate model in general, but it’s an outlier for now…so just be flexible with any outdoor plans on Saturday, and we’ll keep you posted as the rain chances (hopefully) come into better focus.

 

LINKS

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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